Russia’s daily oil exports from its western ports are set to rise by some 100,000 barrels per day to 1.97 million bpd in April from March as the impact of seasonal domestic refinery maintenance outweighs output cuts under an OPEC+ agreement, Reuters calculations based on data from three sources showed.
According to the data, exports and transit of Urals, Kazakh KEBCO and Siberian Light oil from Primorsk, Novorossiisk and Ust-Luga will increase by some 5% in April compared to March.
The sources said the growth in shipments next month will be due to improved weather conditions, as well as higher availability of tankers.
In January, the United States imposed sanctions on 183 vessels involved in the transportation of Russian energy, complicating exports. In April, the availability of the fleet will improve, traders said, as new non-sanctioned tankers have joined the fleet shipping Russian oil.
According to a preliminary plan, the volume of idle primary refining capacity at Russian refineries in April was set to decrease from March by 0.7 million tons to 2.9 million tons.
However, recent drone attacks on Russian refineries and the revision of the maintenance plan will likely lead to an increase in idle capacity next month, the sources said.
Russia cut oil exports by 2.2% in 2024, Kommersant reports
“The situation is constantly changing, the attacks are intense, so we can expect the appearance of additional volumes even to the current plan,” said a Russian oil trader.
According to another trader, a reduction in Russian oil supplies via the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) system may also boost exports from western Russian ports.
On March 19, an oil depot in the village of Kavkazskaya in Krasnodar region was attacked, which led to a huge fire and the destruction of a transshipment point to the CPC system, which mainly transports Kazakhstan’s oil exports.
Supplies to the CPC system were estimated at 130,000 tons per month or more. These volumes may be redirected to other ports, for instance, Novorossiisk, traders reported.
Russia plans to compensate for oil overproduction under the OPEC+ deal with output cuts of 25,000 bpd in March, 51,000 bpd in April, 76,000 bpd in May and 102,000 bpd in June, according to a report from the OPEC oil export cartel.
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