NEW YORK: US natural gas futures held near a three-week low on Friday on record output and forecasts for milder weather and lower heating demand than previously expected through early April.
Front-month gas futures for April delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 0.5 cent, or 0.1%, to settle at $3.980 per million British thermal units (mmBtu). On Thursday, the contract closed at its lowest since February 28.
For the week, the contract was down about 3%. Low gas demand expected in coming weeks should allow utilities to keep adding fuel to storage.
Some analysts say gas stockpiles are on track to increase in March for the first time since 2012 and only the second time in history.
So far, however, gas stockpiles remain around 8% below normal levels for this time of year after extremely cold weather in January and February forced energy firms to pull large amounts of gas out of storage, including record amounts in January.
Financial firm LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 US states rose to 105.9 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in March, up from a record 105.1 bcfd in February.
Meteorologists projected temperatures in the Lower 48 states would remain mostly warmer than normal through April 5.
LSEG forecast average gas demand in the Lower 48, including exports, will rise from 106.8 bcfd this week to 108.0 bcfd next week before sliding to 106.1 bcfd in two weeks. The forecasts for this week and next week were similar to LSEG’s outlook on Thursday.
The amount of gas flowing to the eight big operating US LNG export plants rose to an average of 15.7 bcfd so far in March, up from a record 15.6 bcfd in February, as new units at Venture Global’s 3.2-bcfd Plaquemines LNG export plant, currently under construction in Louisiana, enter service.
On a daily basis, LNG feedgas was on track to hit a preliminary record high of 16.6 bcfd on Friday, up from 16.0 bcfd on Thursday and an average of 15.9 bcfd over the prior seven days. If correct, that would top the current all-time daily high of 16.4 bcfd set on February 23.
The US became the world’s biggest LNG supplier in 2023, surpassing Australia and Qatar, as surging global prices fed demand for more exports due in part to supply disruptions and sanctions linked to Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine.
Gas traded around $14 per mmBtu at both the Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF) benchmark in Europe and the Japan Korea Marker (JKM) benchmark in Asia.
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