EDITORIAL: The Indus River System Authority’s (IRSA’s) recent warning to all provinces regarding water levels in the Tarbela and Mangla dams declining to highly dangerous proportions, with these reservoirs set to approach their dead levels in the next few days, highlights the immense risk the country’s agricultural sector faces in the coming weeks.
The vital wheat crop appears especially vulnerable to insufficient irrigation as farmers prepare for its final watering before they begin harvesting it later in the month.
The impending water scarcity, therefore, poses a severe threat to irrigation, potentially leading to crop failures which, in turn, could increase risks related to food insecurity and economic instability in regions heavily reliant on wheat production.
Punjab and Sindh, in particular, are most at risk, with IRSA notifying of water shortfalls of up to 30-35 percent in the two provinces during the final stages of the current Rabi season.
The latest data from IRSA reveals that the Tarbela dam has only 73,000 acre-feet of water left, with its level at 1,409 feet, just nine feet above the critical dead level of 1,400 feet.
Meanwhile, the Mangla dam’s live storage is at 235,000 acre-feet, with its water level recorded at 1,088 feet, only 28 feet higher than its dead level of 1,060 feet. It is worth noting that the water regulator had forecast back in October that the dams would reach their dead levels towards the end of the winter crop cycle.
In fact, such forecasts and warnings regarding water shortages have become biannual features with the onset of both the Rabi and Kharif seasons, raising serious concerns about the country’s long-term water security and agricultural sustainability.
A combination of declining and erratic rainfall patterns in recent years, accelerated glacier melting, and inefficient water management practices, such as inadequate water storage and distribution infrastructure, along with outdated irrigation systems heavily reliant on wasteful flood irrigation, has exacerbated water scarcity issues.
Furthermore, increased demand for water due to rapid population growth, along with climate change altering the timing, intensity and location of precipitation, creates a complex and evolving challenge for effective water resource management. This makes accurately predicting water availability and planning for sustainable water use a difficult endeavour, placing additional strain on both agricultural and urban water systems.
Recent reports have also painted a grim outlook for future river flows, with climate change poised to disrupt natural water cycles. In this context, the National Disaster Management Authority chairman, speaking at a conference last year, had disclosed some highly troubling facts: the country’s snow cover had reduced by 23.3 percent between November 2023 and April 2024, its annual glacial melt stood at three percent, and shockingly, 16 percent of Pakistan’s glacial mass had been lost over the last five years.
While melting glaciers provide temporary water surpluses, the long-term consequences are severe, adversely impacting freshwater availability, displacing communities and disrupting natural ecosystems.
Programmes like the Living Indus Initiative, which targets restoring over 30 percent of the Indus River Basin by 2030, and the UNDP’s Glacial Lake Outburst Flood project to mitigate glacial melt, while crucial, are long-term in nature and must be augmented by measures that have a more immediate impact on agriculture resilience and water security.
Federal and provincial governments must develop coordinated strategies that prioritise modernising irrigation techniques and agriculture technologies to reduce water wastage and optimise water use in farming.
Additionally, investments in water conservation, wastewater treatment, rainwater harvesting and desalination technologies must also become priorities.
Finally, IRSA and other governmental authorities must ensure that their decisions regarding water distribution among provinces are equitable and do not undermine the interests of any one province, particularly a lower riparian province like Sindh, which remains especially vulnerable to water shortages.
Copyright Business Recorder, 2025
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