MUMBAI: The Indian rupee ended flat on Monday as dollar demand from local oil companies pulled the currency off a near three-month high, hit due to likely portfolio inflows.
The rupee closed at 83.5525 against the U.S. dollar, nearly unchanged from its close at 83.5625 in the previous session. The currency rose to 83.4450 earlier in the session, its highest since June 28.
Asian currencies were on the backfoot with the Philippine peso down 0.6%, leading losses. The dollar index rose above the 101 mark and was last quoted up 0.3% on the day.
The rupee had risen in the last five sessions, benefiting from a pickup in portfolio inflows and broad weakness in the dollar after the Federal Reserve kicked off its rate cuts last week.
Overseas investors have net bought more than $7.5 billion of Indian stocks and bonds over September so far, the highest monthly inflow in 2024.
Given the recent price action on the dollar/rupee pair, “any upward moves should be seen as an opportunity to sell”, Amit Pabari, managing director at FX advisory firm CR Forex said.
“It will be interesting to see how the Reserve Bank of India plays its hand,” Pabari said, referring to whether the central bank will allow the rupee to rise further or intervene to limit appreciation.
Meanwhile, dollar-rupee forward premiums rose, with the 1-year implied yield touching a 17-month peak of 2.38%.
The 1-year yield has risen 22 basis points in September. Given the improved odds of another 50-bp rate cut by the Fed, bankers expect the rise to continue.
Investors await remarks from Fed policymakers later in the day to gauge the future path of policy rates.
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