MOSCOW: Russian wheat export prices have fallen further amid declining demand from exporters, analysts said on Monday, adding that global markets appeared to be approaching a bottom.
The Sovecon consultancy said prices for the nearest delivery dates for Russian wheat with 12.5% protein content had fallen by $1.5 to $217-220 per metric ton.
“We believe the global wheat market is approaching a bottom or reversal,” Sovecon said.
The IKAR consultancy put the price of free-on-board (FOB) 12.5% protein Russian new crop wheat for delivery in late September at $216 per metric ton at the end of last week, $2 lower than the week before.
Sovecon estimated Russia’s weekly grain exports at 1.16 million tons, down from 1.35 million a week ago, including 0.98 million tons of wheat. Russia is the world’s largest wheat exporter.
The consultancy forecast wheat exports in August at 4.8 million tons, compared with 5.3 million tons a year ago, and wheat exports in the 2024-25 season at 48.8 million tons.
Sovecon said it expected Egypt to return to the market in the near future as the country remains confident of securing its target of around 3.8 million metric tons of imported wheat by the end of 2024.
It also saw no significant impact on grain exports from Ukraine’s attack on a ferry in Russia’s Kavkaz port on the Black Sea on Aug. 22, noting that about 10 million tons of wheat per year were shipped through Kavkaz.
Russia has been hit by weather extremes ranging from early spring frosts to droughts to floods, with some grain-producing regions suffering significant crop losses. The bad weather showed no signs of abating during the harvesting season.
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