The government, people, and political elite of Pakistan seem largely unaware that the Russia-Ukraine war is taking a dangerous turn as the G-7, a powerful coalition of the world’s wealthiest and most resourceful countries, were currently meeting in Italy (13-15 June, 2024) and while enjoying Italy’s legendary hospitality, they took the decision to allow Ukraine to use US and Western arms, ammunition, drones, robots, missiles, and other weaponry to launch attacks within Russia. G-7 countries (Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom, and the United States) also decided to unfreeze Russian assets amounting to US$ 50 billion mainly parked in Europe and other parts of the world, which were frozen following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine to fund Ukraine’s war efforts, including repaying the US and other Western countries that have been supplying weapons and military support to Ukraine.
These vital and highly sensitive and critical decisions are akin to poking Russia to react violently and take desperate and drastic actions to counter these moves and protect its interests. Russia may intensify military operations in Ukraine, launching large-scale offensives targeting major cities and critical infrastructure. Additionally, Russia might employ its sophisticated cyber warfare capabilities to launch widespread cyber attacks against critical infrastructure in Ukraine, the US, and Europe, disrupting power grids, financial systems, communication networks, and other essential services.
It could also use tactical nuclear weapons on the battlefield in Ukraine to force a swift and decisive victory, though this would have catastrophic consequences and likely provoke a massive international response. It may target Western supply lines and logistics hubs in NATO countries providing military aid to Ukraine, using missile strikes or sabotage to disrupt the flow of weapons and supplies and targeting NATO allies in Eastern Europe, such as Poland or the Baltic states to escalate the conflict to a broader regional war.
Beyond direct military actions, Russia could engage in economic warfare by cutting off energy supplies to Europe, shutting down pipelines, or disrupting energy exports, severely impacting European countries dependent on Russian energy. Covert operations and proxy warfare could also increase, with Russia supporting insurgent or terrorist groups within Europe and the US to create instability. Diplomatic and political moves might involve strengthening alliances with countries opposed to US and European policies, such as China, North Korea and Iran, forming new economic or military alliances to counterbalance NATO and the G-7.
If Russia implemented its strategy the US and Europe may respond with a comprehensive and coordinated approach by bolstering their military presence in Eastern Europe, deploying additional troops and equipment, and increasing direct support to Ukraine with advanced weaponry and intelligence. They may impose economic sanctions targeting key sectors of the Russian economy, such as energy and finance, and cyber countermeasures to strengthen defenses and retaliate against Russian attacks. Diplomatically, they would isolate Russia internationally, rallying condemnation through forums like the UN and strengthening alliances with countries opposed to Russian actions.
Qamar Bashir
Copyright Business Recorder, 2024
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