Australia, NZ dollars on defensive, markets run away from rate cuts

SYDNEY: The Australian and New Zealand dollars were ending the week on the defensive on Friday as upbeat economic data lifted their US counterpart, while debt markets further lengthened the odds on early rate cuts at home.

The Aussie faded to $0.6596, having failed to hold a key $0.6650 chart level. That left it down 1.3% for the week and well away from the recent four-month top of $0.6714. Support now lies in the $0.6560/6580 zone.

The kiwi dollar held at $0.6095, having eased 0.6% for the week and off a two-month high of $0.6152. It has support at $0.6084 and $0.6041.

The kiwi has been underpinned by a hawkish shift in outlook from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) which forced markets to sharply scale back expectations for rate cuts.

The probability of an October easing has collapsed to just 28%, from 84% early in the week, while a cut in the 5.5% cash rate is now not fully priced in until April next year.