SYDNEY: The Australian dollar hovered near a four-month top on Monday, supported by a surge in commodity prices after China unveiled huge steps to stabilise the property market, while the kiwi was on edge ahead of its central bank policy meeting.
The Aussie rose 0.1% to $0.6700, after gaining 1.4% last week to as high as $0.6714, the strongest since early January.
It broke a major resistance level of $0.6650 as a softening in US inflation revived chances of rate cuts globally, boosting risk appetite.
The kiwi dollar, however, slipped 0.1% at $0.6126, having also jumped 1.9% last week to as high as $0.6141.
It has support at around $0.6082. On Friday, China announced “historic” steps to stabilise its property sector, with the central bank facilitating 1 trillion yuan ($138 billion) in extra funding and easing mortgage rules, and local governments set to buy “some” apartments.
That boosted share markets on Monday. Growth-sensitive copper prices surged to a record high, while prices for iron ore - Australia’s biggest export to China - jumped to a one-week top.
Analysts at Morgan Stanley are bullish on the Australian dollar given the currency’s close correlations to commodity prices, yield differentials and market sentiment on the Chinese growth outlook.
Australia, NZ dlrs fight to hold new range, China data a drag
“The government’s fiscally expansionary stance should keep the economy growing at a robust pace into 2025.
The RBA does not appear likely to cut rates for the foreseeable future even as other central banks are likely to lower rates, moving front-end yields in AUD’s favour,“ they said in a note to clients.
“Moves in highly correlated assets also suggest both AUD/USD and AUD/NZD would rise in reaction.”
The Reserve Bank of Australia will release the minutes for its May policy meeting on Tuesday, and traders will be looking for signs about how serious the central bank considered a rate hike after strong first-quarter inflation figures.
Nonetheless, markets have swung back to pricing in rate cuts after jobs and wages data disappointed, with the first easing in December now a 50/50 chance.
Across the Tasman, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will set interest rates on Wednesday and is expected to leave its main cash rate at 5.5%, with the main question being whether it will change the projected outlook for rates out to next year.
Swaps are pricing in about two rate cuts this year.
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