NAPERVILLE, (Illinois): Extreme dryness from planting through June has been the biggest hiccup of the current US corn and soybean growing season, but the degree to which that has limited crop potential is unclear since there has not yet been widespread data collection from the fields.
That information will begin rolling in on Monday with the start of the four-day, widely followed Pro Farmer Crop Tour, which will have about 100 scouts blanketing seven major production states across the US Corn Belt. I will be on the western half of the tour for the tenth time, eighth consecutive, and getting to know that route has helped me identify the anomalies. For example, I did not realize how big a toll last year’s drought had taken on Nebraska’s crop until I got there, and it gave me flashbacks to 2012. This year I am going to keep my eye on the data from Illinois, where May and most of June were so dry that crop conditions plunged 2012-style to some of the lowest-ever readings. July and early August brought ample rains to much of the state, but corn’s ear size is determined before pollination.
I want to see if the number of kernel rows around the ear is lower than normal. For example, kernel rows in Illinois averaged 16.32 out of 239 samples on the 2021 tour. The US Department of Agriculture predicts 2023 corn yield in Illinois will be similar to that of 2021.
The dryness could have also affected the length of grain fill along the ear or the number of viable ears, which are other metrics collected by scouts. I will of course be monitoring this data for all states, but Illinois should be a prime example given this year’s fast planting and drop in crop conditions, which was not as severe in other states.
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