AIX-EN-PROVENCE (France): An unusually long lag in the time interest rate hikes are taking to feed through to the economy has left corporate leaders guessing whether to prepare for a hard or soft landing.
Although central banks in the United States and Europe have raised interest rates at the fastest pace in decades in an effort to tame inflation, most economies have so far escaped the painful recessions triggered by previous tightening cycles.
For corporate leaders at a weekend economics conference in the southern French town of Aix-en-Provence, that delay has left them questioning when and how much higher borrowing costs will affect them, especially if central banks keep hiking.
“There’s no real consensus at the moment about the increase in interest rates among economic actors,” Jeremie Delecourt, chief operating officer at French private equity fund Ardian, told Reuters.
“The fact everyone is asking the question is interesting, there are those who are optimistic and others who are pessimistic,” he added.
In the euro zone, the peak is near after a combined 4 percentage points rise in the past year, ECB policymaker and French central bank governor Francois Villeroy de Galhau said on a panel at the conference.
But he also said that rates would be left high for as long as necessary to ensure that inflation is headed back to the European Central Bank’s 2% target by 2025.
The ECB raised interest rates to their highest level in 22 years last month and promised another hike this month, with possibly another in September.
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