It appears that Joe Biden’s Democratic Party has been spared the worst of mid-term election blues. In recent history, the party of the first-term US president has traditionally lost big in the US Congress. It has happened to Presidents Clinton, Obama and Trump over the past roughly 30 years. Despite having a low job-performance rating and rampant inflation, President Biden and his party have managed to limit a large loss of seats in the House of Representatives. And his party looks likely to keep the Senate!
During his post-election press conference at the White House on Wednesday, President Biden was upbeat about mid-term results (results are still being tallied in a few key states). Biden was in high spirits despite the fact that losing the thin House majority is a setback for his presidency, putting in peril his legislative agenda on social and economic issues. He seemed relaxed precisely because the dreaded ‘red wave’ of Republican victories did not materialize in the end, or else his losses would have been high.
Traditionally, large mid-term losses have turned sitting US presidents into lame-duck executives, who go on to veto stuff on domestic agenda, and, with luck, accumulate some foreign policy achievements. With a thin Senate majority likely on his side and with the Republicans not having a large majority in the House, Biden looks set to remain relevant as the US president at home and abroad. Divided control of the legislative branch will limit his policies and programmes, but it is better than being a peripheral president.
The future may see legislative logjam on immigration and election reforms, but the first two years of the Biden administration may have laid the groundwork for some results in the coming years. Biden’s legislative victories that mandated investments and spending on infrastructure (roads, bridges, transit, railways, ports, water, etc.), climate change, energy security, semi-conductor technology, etc. may have boosted inflation, but they are expected to raise living standards and competitiveness in coming years.
The Republicans have reportedly warned that their House majority would make things really difficult for the administration going forward. This includes potential gridlock on spending bills and debt ceiling, which will likely force government shutdowns next year. On the foreign policy front, some Republicans have signaled that they might investigate America’s disorderly withdrawal from Afghanistan in August 2021. The Republican leader in the House has warned to restrict US assistance to Ukraine. Besides, some backbenchers have threatened to impeach Biden and investigate his family for alleged corruption.
What may work for Biden in the end is the fact that Republicans are expected to have a small majority in the House, which could enable ‘moderate’ wing of the party (which has more seats) to act as a check on the fringe elements’ zeal to hound the Biden administration. Besides, the political calculations of the Republicans, as well as Democrats, will be guided with an eye on 2024 Presidential Elections. It may hurt a party’s electoral prospects in the big contest if they are seen by the public to be excessively revengeful.
With the mid-term fever now over, the news media and the punditry have quickly pivoted to speculate about the November 2024 presidential election cycle. There is still a lot of time, but it’s business as usual for the media. Biden (who turns 80 next week) is yet to make a compelling case for his re-election. Donald Trump, who just saw some of his endorsed candidates lose in key races, is likely to be challenged from within his party. As for the economy, well, it may play a booster, or a spoiler, in unexpected ways.
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