SINGAPORE: US oil still targets its Monday low of $82.10 per barrel, as the bounce from this level has been almost reversed.
The surprising bounce to about $86.76 on Wednesday proved to be a bluff of bulls.
Instead of gaining any edge, they made some loss. Step by step, they have been retracing towards $81.20.
There could be little doubt about a further fall below this level, after the fruitless bounce on Wednesday.
The downtrend from $90.19 keeps intact, riding on a wave C that is unfolding towards $80.02.
The stabilization around $82.42 could be temporary, and the current bounce weak, probably to end below $84.63. A break above $84.63 would complicate the picture, as it could lead to a gain into $85.70-$86.76 range.
On the daily chart, oil looks a bit neutral in a range of $81.14 to $85.59, even though it is still trending down.
The downtrend from $104.46 is riding on a wave C that could travel to $73.93.
Strategically, this target will be confirmed when oil breaks $81.14.
Strangely, the rate hike on Wednesday did not cause a big drop. Does this indicate a subtle swing of market sentiment?
A further observation could shed some light.