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SINGAPORE: US oil still targets its Monday low of $82.10 per barrel, as the bounce from this level has been almost reversed.

The surprising bounce to about $86.76 on Wednesday proved to be a bluff of bulls.

Instead of gaining any edge, they made some loss. Step by step, they have been retracing towards $81.20.

There could be little doubt about a further fall below this level, after the fruitless bounce on Wednesday.

The downtrend from $90.19 keeps intact, riding on a wave C that is unfolding towards $80.02.

The stabilization around $82.42 could be temporary, and the current bounce weak, probably to end below $84.63. A break above $84.63 would complicate the picture, as it could lead to a gain into $85.70-$86.76 range.

On the daily chart, oil looks a bit neutral in a range of $81.14 to $85.59, even though it is still trending down.

Oil price: Bears or bulls?

The downtrend from $104.46 is riding on a wave C that could travel to $73.93.

Strategically, this target will be confirmed when oil breaks $81.14.

Strangely, the rate hike on Wednesday did not cause a big drop. Does this indicate a subtle swing of market sentiment?

A further observation could shed some light.

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