US consumers’ inflation expectations slid further in August as gasoline prices extended their steep decline from June’s record high, a development likely to be welcomed by Federal Reserve policymakers weighing how big an interest rate hike to deliver next week.
Consumers in August saw inflation at 5.75% over the next 12 months, down from 6.2% in July and the lowest rate since October 2021, the New York Fed’s monthly consumer expectations survey showed on Monday. They also foresee price increases averaging 2.8% over the next three years - the lowest pace since late 2020 - after pegging inflation over that horizon at 3.2% in July.
Those outcomes may bring some relief to US central bank officials who have been fretting that the highest inflation in 40 years might alter consumers’ perceptions of how sticky the current price shocks may be, which would make policymakers’ job of containing inflation all the more difficult.
The Federal Open Market Committee - the Fed’s policy-setting arm - is expected at its Sept. 20-21 meeting to raise the central bank’s benchmark overnight lending rate again from the current range of 2.25%-2.50%. The Fed has delivered back-to-back 75-basis-point rate hikes, and contracts in futures markets tied to Fed expectations predict a third increase of that magnitude next week.
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The survey also brought some optimistic news for the labor market, which Fed officials are expecting to weaken somewhat as they raise interest rates to lower overall activity and demand.
Consumers responding to the New York Fed questionnaire in August saw a lower likelihood that they would lose their job in the next year than in July and a higher probability of finding a new job should they lose their current employment. Moreover, the percentage of those seeing it likely that they would quit their current job dropped to the lowest since March 2021.
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