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ISLAMABAD: The Consumer Price Index (CPI) based inflation increased by a massive 24.93 percent on year-on-year basis in July 2022 as compared to an increase of 21.3 percent in the previous month and 8.4 percent in July 2021, says the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS).

As per the monthly review of price indices by the PBS, on a month-on-month basis, it increased by 4.3per cent in July 2022 as compared to an increase of 6.3per cent in the previous month and an increase of 1.3per cent in July 2021.

According to the PBS data, the prices of food and non-food items including potatoes, eggs, cooking oil, vegetable ghee, masoor, wheat, rice, milk, electricity charges, motor fuels, construction input items, stationery, motor vehicles accessories, cleaning and laundering, liquefied hydrocarbons, and woolen cloth increased.

The CPI inflation Urban increased by 23.6per cent on a year-on-year basis in July 2022 as compared to an increase of 19.8per cent in the previous month and 8.7per cent in July 2021. On a month-on-month basis, it increased by 4.5per cent in July 2022 as compared to an increase of 6.2per cent in the previous month and an increase of 1.3per cent in July 2021.

Experts see Pakistan's inflation rate topping 24% in July

CPI inflation Rural, increased by 26.9per cent on a year-on-year basis in July 2022 as compared to an increase of 23.6per cent in the previous month and 8.0per cent in July 2021. On a month-on-month basis, it increased by 4.2per cent in July 2022 as compared to an increase of 6.6per cent in the previous month and an increase of 1.4per cent in July 2021.

The Sensitive Price Index (SPI) inflation on YoY increased by 28.2per cent in July 2022 as compared to an increase of 21.7per cent a month earlier and an increase of 16.2per cent in July 2021. On MoM basis, it increased by 7.3per cent in July 2022 as compared to an increase of 6.2per cent a month earlier and an increase of 1.8per cent in July 2021.

The Wholesale Price Index (WPI) inflation on YoY basis increased by 38.5per cent in July 2022 as compared to an increase of 38.9per cent a month earlier and an increase of 17.3per cent in July 2021. The WPI inflation on a MoM basis increased by 2.0per cent in July 2022 as compared to an increase of 8.2per cent a month earlier and an increase of 2.3per cent in the corresponding month i.e. July 2021.

Measured by non-food non-energy Urban increased by 12.0 per cent on (YoY) basis in July, 2022 as compared to an increase of 11.5 per cent in the previous month and 6.9 per cent in July 2021. On a MoM basis, it increased by 1.2 per cent in July 2022 as compared to an increase of 2.0 per cent in the previous month, and an increase of 0.8 per cent in the corresponding month of last year, ie, July 2021.

Measured by non-food non-energy rural increased by 14.6 per cent on (YoY) basis in July 2022 as compared to an increase of 13.6 per cent in the previous month and 6.9 per cent in July 2021. On a MoM basis, it increased by 1.6 per cent in July 2022 as compared to an increase of 2.3 per cent in the previous month, and an increase of 0.7 per cent in the corresponding month of last year i.e. July 2021.

Measured by 20per cent weighted trimmed mean Urban increased by 19.1 per cent on (YoY) basis in July 2022 as compared to 16.7 per cent in the previous month and 9.0 per cent in July 2021.

On MoM basis, it increased by 2.7 per cent in July 2022 as compared to an increase of 3.5 per cent in the previous month and an increase of 0.8 per cent in the corresponding month of last year i.e. July 2021.

Measured by 20 per cent weighted trimmed mean Rural increased by 21.7 per cent on (YoY) basis in July 2022 as compared to 19.1 per cent in the previous month and by 8.4 per cent in July 2021. On a MoM basis, it increased by 2.7 per cent in July 2022 as compared to an increase of 4.3 per cent in the previous month and an increase of 0.8 per cent in the corresponding month of last year i.e. July 2021.

The top few commodities, which varied from the previous month and contributed to Urban CPI among food which registered an increase are vegetables (25.14 per cent), pulse gram (13.87 per cent), onions (13.65 per cent), potatoes (10.87 per cent), besan (10.01 per cent), wheat (9.76 per cent), maash (9.73 per cent), masoor (9.01 per cent), tea (8.98 per cent), eggs (8.09 per cent), cooking oil (7.66 per cent), wheat flour (6.34 per cent), gram whole (5.36 per cent), rice (5.16 per cent), vegetable ghee (5.11 per cent), milk (3.84 per cent), and moong (2.67 per cent)

Decreased: tomatoes (12.46 per cent), fruits (7.11 per cent) and chicken (3.02 per cent). non-food increased: electricity charges (39.35 per cent), motor fuel (7.35 per cent), construction input items (3.18 per cent), washing soap/detergents/ match box (2.45 per cent), cotton cloth (2.21 per cent), liquefied hydrocarbons (1.99 per cent), electrical appliances (1.48 per cent), plastic products (1.40 per cent), and furniture and furnishing (1.30 per cent).

The YoY top few commodities which varied from corresponding month of previous year i.e. July, 2021 and increased among food include: masoor (92.43 per cent), onions (89.48 per cent), mustard oil (81.95 per cent), vegetable ghee (74.08 per cent), cooking oil (72.56 per cent), gram whole (67.48 per cent), chicken (59.09 per cent), wheat (45.02 per cent), pulse gram (43.24 per cent), vegetables (40.47 per cent), fruits (39.23 per cent), besan (37.52 per cent), pulse mash (35.68 per cent), rice (31.22 per cent), meat (25.97 per cent), milk (24.75 per cent), eggs (23.74 per cent), tea (23.12 per cent) and beans (22.50 per cent), and decreased in condiments and spices (21.23 per cent), sugar (14.5 per cent), and moong (5.55 per cent) non-food increased: motor fuel (94.42 per cent), electricity charges (86.72 per cent), liquefied hydrocarbons (45.62 per cent), stationery (34.81 per cent), cleaning and laundering (30.39 per cent), washing soap/detergents/ match box (24.72 per cent), motor vehicle accessories (22.38 per cent), construction input items (19.99 per cent), plastic products (19.47 per cent), footwear (19.36 per cent), and cotton cloth (18.15 per cent).

The top few commodities, which varied from the previous month and contributed to rural CPI and which increased among food items are potatoes (19.94 per cent), vegetables (14.78 per cent), pulse gram (14.59 per cent), masoor (9.60 per cent), eggs (9.05 per cent), maash (8.23 per cent), onions (7.15 per cent), wheat (7.06 per cent), tea (6.47 per cent), besan (6.14 per cent), rice (6.12 per cent), gram whole (5.50 per cent), chicken (4.82 per cent), moong (4.79 per cent), milk (2.75 per cent), and condiments and spices (2.33 per cent), and decreased in tomatoes (13.44 per cent), fruits (5.11 per cent), cooking oil (0.77 per cent) and mustard oil (0.04 per cent). non-food increased: electricity charges (39.35 per cent), construction input items (7.84 per cent), motor fuels (7.57 per cent), liquefied hydrocarbons (4.62 per cent), plastic products (3.62 per cent), stationery (2.73 per cent), household equipments (2.38 per cent), hosiery (2.29 per cent), motor vehicles accessories (1.81 per cent) and furniture & furnishing (1.77 per cent).

YoY top few commodities which varied from the corresponding month of the previous year i.e. July 2021 in food items which increased are onions (100.03 per cent), masoor (90.46 per cent), cooking oil (82.7 per cent), vegetable ghee (82.22 per cent), mustard oil (75.71 per cent), gram whole (74.44 per cent), chicken (60.88 per cent), pulse gram (48.36 per cent), fruits (45.99 per cent), vegetables (38.92 per cent), wheat (38.30 per cent), besan (34.10 per cent), rice (31.09 per cent), pulse mash (30.61 per cent), beans (27.07 per cent), meat (25.69 per cent), eggs (25.17 per cent) and milk (21.51 per cent) and decreased among sugar (13.78 per cent), and condiments and spices (9.44 per cent).

Among non-food which increased are motor fuels (99.19 per cent), electricity charges (86.72 per cent), liquefied hydrocarbons (51.96 per cent), construction input items (36.44 per cent), motor vehicles accessories (26.96 per cent), cleaning and laundering (26.18 per cent), washing soaps/detergents/ matchbox (25.84 per cent), stationery (24.87 per cent), hosiery (21.85 per cent), furniture and furnishing (20.15 per cent) and plastic products (19.70 per cent).

The top few commodities which varied from the previous month and contributed to the WPI inflation and increased included are electrical energy (40.43 per cent), readymade garments (27.37 per cent), fertilizers (23.91 per cent), hides, skins and fur skins (19.46 per cent), glass sheets (18.8 per cent), paints and varnishes (12.84 per cent), stimulant and spice crops (12.47 per cent), cereal flour (10.24 per cent), vegetables (10.20 per cent), tractors (9.82 per cent), timber (9.81 per cent), chuff cutter (9.40 per cent), diesel (8.86 per cent), kerosene (8.64 per cent), wheat (8.51 per cent), potatoes (8.49 per cent), motor spirit (8.12 per cent) and mobil oil (6.98 per cent). decreased: fibre crops (23.03 per cent), leather (4.92 per cent), poultry (4.50 per cent), oil seeds (3.53 per cent), vegetable ghee (2.39 per cent), furnace oil (2.05 per cent) and vegetable oil (0.46 per cent). Year-on-year: top few commodities which varied from the previous year are given below: increased: chuff cutter (150.92 per cent), kerosene (147.19 per cent), diesel (138.55 per cent), motor spirit (109.02 per cent), furnace oil (93.92 per cent), fertilizers (83.20 per cent), coal (79.42 per cent), vegetable ghee (79.37 per cent), chemicals (76.55 per cent), cultivators (68.18 per cent), pulses (64.73 per cent), poultry (61.64 per cent), electrical energy (60.88 per cent), vegetable oil (56.04 per cent), cement (55.53 per cent), glass sheets (53.17 per cent), wheat (46.11 per cent), footwear (41.34 per cent), cereal flour (40.47 per cent), vegetables (39.35 per cent), maize (39.04 per cent), steel bar and sheets (38.46 per cent), paints and varnishes (34.50 per cent) and readymade garments (30.23 per cent) decreased: stimulant and spice crops (44.27 per cent), spices (40.35 per cent), and sugar (12.77 per cent).

Reuters adds: Country’s annual consumer price inflation reached 24.9% in July, up from 21.3% in June and the highest in 14 years, the statistics bureau said on Monday.

Non-food items, mainly fuel and electricity charges, were the major reason for the rise, it said, adding surging prices for vegetables, pulses, cooking oil, wheat flour and milk were also a significant factor.

On a month-on-month basis, inflation jumped by 4.3% in July, the bureau said.

Pakistan is in economic turmoil with fast depleting foreign reserves, an historic depreciation of the rupee against US dollar, and soaring inflation.

However, sufficient measures have been put in place to contain the current account deficit as energy imports have declined and non-energy imports showed moderate falls, the central bank and finance ministry said in a joint statement.

It was issued on Sunday night, hours after the ministry announced that the country’s imports had fallen one third in the month of July.

The significant cut in imports - both in oil and non-oil payments - will remove pressure on the rupee, which had depreciated over 25% this year against the US dollar, Finance Minister Miftah Ismail said on Sunday.

The rupee slightly recovered on Monday with a 53 paisa appreciation.

“Macroeconomic policies - both fiscal policy and monetary policy - have been appropriately tightened to reduce demand-led pressures and rein in the current account deficit,” the joint statement said.

It added that the government was ready to implement all conditions agreed with International Monetary Fund to be able to receive its next tranche if approved by its board, which is likely to meet later this month.

The IMF reached a staff-level agreement with Pakistan last month for the disbursement of a $1.2 billion tranche, which will unlock other external financing avenues.

Copyright Business Recorder, 2022

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