Goldman Sachs sees a 30% chance of the U.S. economy tipping into recession over the next year, up from its previous forecast of 15%, amid record-high inflation and a weak macroeconomic backdrop fueled by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
The latest forecast comes about a week after the U.S. Federal Reserve rolled out its biggest rate hike since 1994 to stem a surge in inflation and as several other central banks also took aggressive steps to tighten monetary policy.
Goldman Sachs also downgraded its U.S. GDP estimates below consensus for the next two years to reflect the drag on the economy.
“The Fed has front-loaded rate hikes more aggressively, terminal rate expectations have risen, and financial conditions have tightened further and now imply a substantially larger drag on growth — somewhat more than we think is necessary,” Goldman’s economists said in a note from late-Monday.
“We now see a 30% probability of entering a recession over the next year (vs. 15% previously) and a 25% conditional probability of entering a recession in the second year if we avoid one in the first year, implying a 48% cumulative probability at a two-year horizon (vs. 35% previously),” the economists said.
“We are increasingly concerned that the Fed will feel compelled to respond forcefully to high headline inflation and consumer inflation expectations if energy prices rise further, even if activity slows sharply,” the note said.