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LONDON/DUBAI: OPEC+ is likely to stick to its existing deal and agree another small output increase for June when it meets on May 5, six sources from the producer group told Reuters on Thursday, even as Russia expects its output to shrink further.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and allies led by Russia, collectively known as OPEC+, have been unwinding record output cuts in place since the COVID-19 pandemic took hold in 2020.

Under a deal reached in July last year, the group is set to increase output targets by 432,000 bpd every month until the end of September, to unwind its remaining production cuts.

OPEC cuts 2022 world oil demand forecast due to Ukraine war

Last month, it agreed to go ahead with the planned output increase for May.

Major consumers, led by the United States, have been pressing the group to boost output at a faster pace, however, especially as Western sanctions hit Russian output.

The group, however, has been struggling to produce at its agreed targets, a trend that is likely to continue.

It produced 1.45 mln bpd below its production targets in March, as Russian output began to decline, data showed.

Russia may see its oil production fall by as much as 17% in 2022, an economy ministry document seen by Reuters showed, as Moscow struggles with Western sanctions.

The scale of the decline would be the most significant since the 1990s when the oil industry suffered from underinvestment.

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