PARIS: The fallout from the war in Ukraine could cut global economic growth by “over one percentage point” in the first year after the invasion, the OECD said in a report Thursday.
The impact “if sustained” would produce “a deep recession in Russia, and push up global consumer price inflation by approximately 2.5 percentage points”, the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development said in its report.
“The economic disruptions brought on by the conflict are large and are likely to continue into the future”, OECD Secretary General Mathias Cormann said in a press conference.
The size of the shock would “depend in part on the duration of the war”, said the OECD, a group of developed economies.
It modified plans to publish its usual global economic forecasts in light of the high uncertainty sparked by Russia’s February 24 invasion of Ukraine, publishing instead an assessment of the economic consequences of the conflict.
Despite together only accounting for “about two percent” of the global economy, Russia and Ukraine’s importance as exporters of raw material, food and energy mean the impact is likely to be felt beyond their borders.
Growth in the eurozone risked being cut by up to 1.4 percentage points, according to the OECD.