FORT COLLINS, (Colo.): Grain traders remember 2021 beginning with a historic rally in Chicago corn and soyabean futures, but that upswing may already be forgotten because 2022 has had a more explosive start.
Wednesday’s trade brought fresh highs for the new-crop contracts, which can influence US farmers’ upcoming planting decisions. Although these early gains are reminiscent of last year, there are some distinct differences, particularly in the intermarket spread.
Soyabeans’ performance is most remarkable, as both nearby and deferred contracts are trading at record-high levels for the first week of February.
Wednesday’s settle in new-crop soyabeans of $13.89-3/4 per bushel represents a 9.5% boost so far in calendar-year 2022, the largest upside move since 11.9% during the same period in 2008. Fourteen-year high gains would still hold true if using only January, leaving off the recent two sessions’ strength.
New-crop soyabeans over the same time frame a year ago increased an impressive 3.5%, which was the most since 2011. That strength continued in February 2021 as monthly gains totaled 7%, a nine-year high.
What 2022 soyabeans lack compared with 2021 is the relative strength versus corn, which can be suggestive of better profitability levels for soyabeans when the bean-corn ratio is near 2.5 or greater.