Comparisons of America's behaviour after this Afghan war with the so-called Soviet jihad are flat-out wrong for a number of reasons. For one thing, America was on the other side in the latter and there was never anything to suggest that it would, or even should, want to have anything to do with Afghanistan once the Soviets left with tail between legs. For another, it has not abandoned anything this time, especially not its own interests.
The war had become the classic case of throwing good money after bad and the Trump administration, if anything, only fast-forwarded a process stuck in slow motion for far too long. The war had turned into America's longest overseas military engagement, cost trillions of dollars, and it was simply time to pull the plug. It was money that made them go. And even though it looks as if they no longer have a foothold in the area, the fact is that they still hold the key to Afghanistan's, and therefore the region's, survival. They have the money that Afghanistan so desperately needs. And they also have the power to unfreeze the $10 billion of the Afghan central bank's funds that they have frozen.
The Taliban's victory was indeed remarkable. The western press's coverage hasn't taken into account the fact that this wasn't an army that beat the Afghan military and the Americans, it was everyday potato sellers, blacksmiths by day, insurgents by night, most of whom could hardly put together two square meals a day. And by whatever miracle they humbled the mightiest fighting force in the history of the world, there's no way they can function without a lot of money now that they must run the state. It's not like they can go back to selling fruits and vegetables or repairing horse shoes in day time and expect the 'emirate' to function on its own.
Washington's control of the money supply into Kabul gives it far greater leverage over the Taliban regime than appears to be the case. So far the Taliban are not helping themselves, or ordinary Afghans, by not giving the west what it's asked for and what the Taliban promised during peace talks in Doha - inclusive government, minorities in administration, women rights, etc. And they did nobody any favours, especially not anybody in Afghanistan, when they announced a return to executions and amputations; or when they hoisted dead bodies of four alleged kidnappers from a crane in Herat for everybody to see. How long did they expect the western media to take to draw parallels with what they did to Dr Najibullah and his brother when they overran Kabul in 1996?
Such things put Pakistan in a rather awkward position. We can live with the world taking our lobbying for the recognition of the Taliban government and resumption of aid money to them as vindication of their fears about us, which we've always denied, but that's only because for us too it's as much about security as it is about the money. It's because of Afghanistan, after all, that Washington wants to review its relationship with Islamabad. And we know that if it sours any more the first thing that is going to be affected is our aid. That's why sometimes we try to get the Americans to soften their position just a little, while at other times we do what we can to try and convince the Taliban to de-escalate. The idea is that the Americans can be made happy enough with the Taliban to release their central bank's funds and resume their aid; and that Pakistan would have enough to do with it to not make them put the brakes on our own aid.
The coming days should make for a rare reality check for the Taliban. Winning the war was one thing, remarkable as it was, but running the country is an entirely different ballgame. Since more than 80pc of Afghanistan's budget was financed by debt even in the best of times, and these are far from the best of times, very soon the Taliban will have to make a few concessions, following which President Biden would be forced to make a graceful gesture for humanitarian concerns.
So far Pakistan has been unable to get either side to blink first. Yet one will have to, one way or the other. And since it's the Taliban that need the money, they'll have to conjure up a sharia-compliant acceptance of some of the terms that they've been trying to avoid. That should dodge an immediate civil war in Afghanistan, give the Americans something to show for all their troubles, and avoid a current account catastrophe in Pakistan. Our fate is tied with Afghanistan in more ways than one. And it's all about money this time.
Copyright Business Recorder, 2021
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