About 7 million doses have been administered across Pakistan according to the latest update by National Command and Operation Center (NCOC), of which about 1.5 million people have been fully vaccinated. The rate of shots given daily has picked up dramatically over the past month as though a new life has been breathed into the campaign so much so that the government has opened registration for individuals aged 19 and above.
On the one hand, opening up the free vaccine access to anyone above 19 years is a great marker of the government’s confidence in its vaccination program. About 18.7 million doses have been secured from multiple sources (predominantly China) with some doses of AstraZeneca and now Pfizer also available through Gavi donations. Another major feat is the local production of CanSino, labelled PakVac developed by National Institute of Health. The facility is able to churn out 3 million doses every month.
The 18.7 million doses can fully vaccinate about 11-12 million people (this may be a bit generous. The assumption here is that Pakistan has imported about the same number of one-shot Cansino vaccine as the other two brands: Sinopharm and Sinovac which are both two-shots). To achieve herd immunity, Pakistan needs to vaccinate 75 percent of its population, but the current coverage would inoculate 5 percent of the total population or 9 percent of the above-18 population (using population numbers quoted by PIDE COVID Bulletin-22. Census 2017 numbers would give slightly different results). In theory however, if the country has home-grown capacity to make 3 million one-shot PakVac, the country can achieve the seemingly impossible target of vaccinating its ballooning population with a covid-19 vaccine.
Had the country depended on foreign vaccines, it would be outside the realm of possibility to cover such a large population. But the government of Pakistan has also been dealt a fairly lucky hand. A large share of the population is hesitant to get the vaccine in the first place which has been a dominant reason why the 19 and above age group has been allowed to get their jabs.
Various different surveys have pointed toward vaccine hesitancy. When asked if an individual would get vaccinated, if it were available, Ipsos found 39 percent people that said no (61% said yes), Gallup found this share to be 26 percent (65% said yes) while roughly 30 percent had the same response as per CERP’s Economic Vulnerability Assessment latest round (65% said yes and absolutely yes). It is clear that about 30-40 percent of the population may not get the vaccine if it is available. While vaccine hesitancy is not unique to Pakistan, according to Ipsos, Pakistanis are amongst the least eager nations to get vaccinated.
Side-effects and safety concerns happen to be the most cited reasons for this vaccine hesitancy according to all three aforementioned surveys. This means, as more people get vaccinated, and fewer demonstrate any palpable side effects, this perception may change. Already, a demonstrative change has occurred since the vaccination campaign kicked off.
Two findings here are of note: as per CERP’s Economic Vulnerability Assessment, people who were neutral about getting the vaccine became more decided. In Sep/Oct-20, 20.7 percent people were neutral about whether they would get the jab; by Dec-20/Jan-21 cycle, this number came down to 5 percent. Unfortunately, according to this survey, more undecided people decided to not get the vaccine. In fact, in the Sep/Oct-20 cycle, 11 percent respondents said they won’t get the vaccine which became 30 percent in the latest cycle.
While Ipsos’ findings remained consistent between the Dec-20 and Mar-21 period—the eagerness to get the vaccine remained about the same—Gallup found a vivid demarcation from Dec-20. Within 3 months, the survey found that people who said they will get the vaccine improved from 38 percent to 65 percent. Vaccine hesitancy decreased (see graph).
One recurrent reason cited across the surveys was also the fact that individuals believe the vaccines have been rolled out too fast and have not been given the chance of proper testing to evaluate their safety. This is positive—because as more people get the vaccine and data is collected, adequate testing could dispel this reasoning and may turn people toward vaccination.
Lastly, another major reason cited for vaccine hesitancy was belief in natural immunity (Gallup: 42%), (CERP: 38%). This is likely unshakeable unless perhaps if the virus goes out of control once again and more people (and those close to them) contract the virus. While Gallup found that 64 percent people thought the virus’ threat was exaggerated, CERP’s findings were more telling even if intuitive: people’s willingness to take the vaccine was higher among those who reported being worried about Covid.
Evidently, a large portion of people believe in the health of their immune system and ability to fight off the virus. But we know that banking on the immune system is not the best bet; vaccinations are. Despite varying levels of efficacy, all the vaccines that are available will decidedly protect recipients from the virus’ most adverse side-effects and help in staving off hospitalization and fatality. The take-away from surveys however is that more vaccinations can overturn opinions and the demand for the same will likely spring up over the next month or so across the country.
In a way, the time it took for the population to become more ready to get the vaccine, the government was able to arrange those jabs, including getting local production going. If PakVac really works out—and folks are not wary of getting the shot of a domestic vaccine on their arms—it certainly kindles optimism on a covid-free future for Pakistan. More than ever before.
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