US natgas rises on cooler forecasts, higher power generator demand

US natural gas futures rose near 1% on Wednesday on near-record liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports and forecasts for cooler weather and higher heating demand over the next two weeks than previously expected.

Traders also noted that price declines over the past four weeks have prompted power generators to burn more gas and less coal to produce electricity.

Front-month gas futures rose 1.8 cents, or 0.7%, to $2.526 per million British thermal units (mmBtu) at 9:13 a.m. EDT (1313 GMT).

Despite the small gain, the front-month was still down about 24% since hitting a three-month high of $3.316 per mmBtu during the Texas freeze in mid-February.

Analysts said falling demand and rising output over the past month caused utilities to pull less gas from storage in recent weeks. Some analysts think utilities will take the unusual step of adding gas to storage in March.

Over the past five years, utilities have pulled on average 51 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas from storage during the week ended March 19 while pulling 24 bcf during the week ended March 26.

Data provider Refinitiv said output in the Lower 48 US states averaged 91.1 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in March, up sharply from a 28-month low of 86.5 bcfd in February, when extreme weather froze gas wells and pipes in Texas. That, however, was still much lower than the record monthly high of 95.4 bcfd in November 2019.

Refinitiv projected average gas demand, including exports, would ease from 97.6 bcfd this week to 97.5 bcfd next week. The forecast for next week was higher than Refinitiv projected on Tuesday due to expectations that power generators will burn more gas and less coal.

The amount of gas flowing to US LNG export plants, meanwhile, averaged 10.6 bcfd so far in March. That compares with a four-month low of 8.5 bcfd in February, when extreme cold cut power and gas supplies to the facilities, and a monthly record high of 10.7 bcfd in December.