Italy business lobby sees economic rebound from second half, may cut 2021 estimate
- Consumer confidence would return once restrictions to control the pandemic were eased.
- "However, the decline estimated for the end of 2020 and the current weakness make a downward revision of overall growth for this year," CSC said.
ROME: Italy's business lobby Confindustria said on Saturday it expected to revise down its growth estimate for the economy in 2021 despite a rebound projected from the second half of the year.
A monthly report published by its research unit CSC said the rebound seen starting in the third quarter of the year would be strong and could exceed initial estimates if Italy's COVID-19 vaccination programme was rapid and efficient.
Conversely, consumption and gross domestic product (GDP) would slow down in the first quarter as households put more money into savings amid uncertainty about the economic outlook and jobs, CSC added.
Consumer confidence would return once restrictions to control the pandemic were eased, it added.
"However, the decline estimated for the end of 2020 and the current weakness make a downward revision of overall growth for this year," CSC said.
Currently it estimates Italian GDP to grow 4.8% in 2021. However such projection does not include the effects of Rome's next budget manoeuvre and resources made available by the European union.
The report did not elaborate on the level of a possible future cut in the estimate.
Earlier this month Economy Minister Roberto Gualtieri said Italy would post economic growth this year "not far below" Rome's official target of 6%, set in September.
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