US-Taliban peace process: Deliberations under way to avoid any possible derailment

ISLAMABAD: Pakistan’s senior civil and military leadership has initiated deliberations on the ongoing Afghan peace process in a bid to avoid any possible derailment subsequent to the announcement by the incoming Biden administration that it would review US-Taliban peace process.

Informed sources told Business Recorder that intense deliberations are under way to chalk out a strategy aimed at facilitating the ongoing peace process to continue, as any derailment would be detrimental to the peace and security of the region, particularly Pakistan and Afghanistan.

In the backdrop of these consultations, the sources said Foreign Minister Shah Mahmood Qureshi contacted his Afghan counterpart Hanif Atmar on Monday in which he reiterated Pakistan’s consistent support to a peaceful, stable and prosperous Afghanistan.

Qureshi also underlined that the intra-Afghan negotiations provided an historic opportunity for the Afghan leadership to achieve an inclusive, broad-based and comprehensive political settlement in Afghanistan.

In his talk with his Afghan counterpart, Qureshi also expressed concern on the high level of violence in Afghanistan and emphasized progress in the intra-Afghan negotiations which would also facilitate reduction in violence, leading to a ceasefire.

The sources said that more high-level contacts are also expected to take place in the coming days and also with Biden administration officials to get a complete understanding of the new US administration’s future plan with regard to the peace process in Afghanistan.

After his confirmation as President Biden’s new National Security Adviser, Jake Sullivan contacted his Afghan counterpart Hamdullah Mohib on January 22, 2021 and “made clear the United States’ intention to review” the US-Taliban peace deal made by former Trump administration.

“Sullivan also made clear the United States’ intention to review the February 2020 US-Taliban agreement, including to assess whether the Taliban was living up to its commitments to cut ties with terrorist groups, to reduce violence in Afghanistan, and to engage in meaningful negotiations with the Afghan government and other stakeholders,” White House stated in a statement on January 22.

It further stated that Sullivan underscored that the US will support the peace process with a robust and regional diplomatic effort, which will aim to help the two sides achieve a durable and just political settlement and permanent ceasefire.

Earlier, US Secretary of State-Designate Tony Blinken stated that the new administration wanted to review the US-Taliban peace deal, but clarified that the administration would allow the peace process started by the Trump administration to continue.

“We want to end this so-called forever war,” Blinken was quoted by the media as having said when he appeared before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee for his confirmation hearing last week.

“We want to bring our forces home. We want to retain some capacity to deal with any resurgence of terrorism, which is what brought us there in the first place…We have to look carefully at what has actually been negotiated. I haven’t been privy to it yet,” he added.

Biden is considered to have a greater understanding of the South Asian region, particularly Pakistan and Afghanistan. He last visited Islamabad on January 12, 2011, as his country’s Vice President to reassure Pakistan of America’s long-term commitment. During his trip, Biden met Pakistani President Asif Ali Zardari and Prime Minister Yusuf Raza Gilani.

According to senior analyst Rahimullah Yusufzai, President Biden has a different approach given his understanding of the region particularly Pakistan and Afghanistan.

With regard to the ongoing Afghan peace process, Yousafzai said that President Biden on many occasions voiced his support for the peace process and also backed reduction of American troops in Afghanistan and an end to the US war.

However, renegotiating the peace deal seems unlikely at this stage, as a lot of progress has already been made and there is a possibility that the new US administration may press the Taliban to agree to a permanent ceasefire, he further stated.

“I understand that Biden is not against the continuation of the peace process and also the troops’ withdrawal from Afghanistan, as he has on many occasions indicated the need to reduce US forces in Afghanistan,” Yousafzai said, adding that a complete US withdrawal from Afghanistan seems highly unlikely and a certain number of American forces will continue to remain in Afghanistan for counterterrorism operations against militant groups such as Daesh.

Senior defence analyst Lt GenTalat Masood (retd) said that Biden administration would continue to exert pressure on the Taliban to strictly adhere to the peace deal by reducing violence to a significant level.

“Dialogue and violence cannot go together. The Taliban have to end the armed operations in order to advance the peace process. To my understanding, the new US administration would pressurize the Taliban so that they agree to abide by the peace deal and also on a future political set up equally acceptable to all the Afghan groups,” he added. He stated that Biden administration also wanted American forces to withdraw from Afghanistan, but that it be a “dignified” withdrawal. For this, he added that the new US administration may ask the Taliban for a firm commitment that Afghanistan’s soil would not be used to launch terror attacks against United States or any of its allies as well as the regional countries.

Copyright Business Recorder, 2021