EU wheat crop shows mixed results as harvest progresses

PARIS: This year's soft wheat harvest in the European Union is expected to be sharply lower than last year due to adverse weather conditions, with disparate results including poor crops France and southeastern EU and a better outlook in Poland and Germany.

"Wheat crops in large exporting countries at the two extremes of the bloc, northwest and southeast, have suffered a lot due to bad weather conditions this year," Vincent Braak, analyst with consultancy Strategie Grains, said.

The consultancy cut its estimate of this year's soft wheat harvest in the EU + Britain to below 130 million tonnes as it lowered its projection for France, Romania and Bulgaria by 3 million tonnes overall, which was not compensated by a rise of 1.5-2.0 million tonnes for Poland, Germany and the Baltic States, he said.

The EU produced 147 million tonnes of soft wheat in 2019.

In France, the harvest was in full swing this week thanks to dry weather conditions, showing better-than-expected results in the northern grain baskets.

"Yield expectations (in France) are still below the 5-year average, due to the difficult start of the season and contrasted conditions, but the end of the season has been particularly beneficial," EU crop monitor MARS said on a report on Monday.

Still, Strategie Grains sees the French soft wheat harvest below 30 million tonnes against 31.6 million tonnes seen in mid-July and nearly 40 million last year, Braak said citing poor yields and hampered sowings and a reduction in its area estimate.

This echoed Agritel's forecast on Monday of a French soft wheat harvest at 29.22 million tonnes.

In Germany, the EU's second-largest wheat producer, the wheat harvest is starting in early southern regions with a better outlook and a relaxed view taken of showers forecast up to and over the weekend.

"I think we will achieve a decent, average crop although a tick down on the year with the rain in June and early July beneficial. I have not heard anything negative about quality."

Germany's 2020 wheat harvest is expected to fall 2.6pc on the year to 22.46 million tonnes, farm cooperatives estimate.

In Poland, the outlook has also improved but drier weather is also needed after repeated rain, said Wojtek Sabaranski of analysts Sparks Polska.

Sparks Polska increased its wheat crop forecast to 11.6 million tonnes, up 4pc from last year.

"We definitely need more stable weather with lots of sunshine and no rain in the days ahead to let harvesters get rolling and to gather a decent quality crop," Sabaranski said.