Following is a selection of comments from analysts on important technical developments in the foreign exchange market.
EURO/DOLLAR: "Our short-term outlook remains bearish but expect some sideways trade (and upward recovery) to develop. Resistance is at $1.1925 and $1.1975 ($1.1993 or 13-day moving average). Support moves to the $1.1825-$1.1781 zone, but a difficult close below the $1.1745 support (13-month moving average at $1.1753) is needed to test the $1.1615 support/weekly up trendline. An unexpected but bearish break of $1.1600 would open the downside to the $1.1380 low from last November. We remain a cautious bear."
DOLLAR/YEN: "Our short-term outlook remains bullish, but even though prices set back from the 109.95 yen high, the upside should continue to develop even if some sideways trade takes hold. Resistance remains at 109.75 yen and the 110 yen psychological level, but closing above the 110 yen area is needed to test the 110.55 yen daily down trendline, coinciding with the 200-day moving average at 110.46 yen. A strong close above that key zone, especially on today's weekly chart, should extend gains to the 112.31 yen high."
"Support remains at the 109-108.95 yen (61.8 percent retracement) area, but a close above 108.50 yen is needed to retain this upward momentum and prevent a wide congestion zone from forming to 108.25 yen and 107.60-107.50 yen (38.2 percent retracement and 13-day moving average at 107.84 yen). A closing break of 107.50 yen would test the 50 percent retracement at 107 yen (107.24 yen 100-day moving average) in a wide trading range.
Closing below 107 yen would confirm a top to focus on lower support at 106.50 yen and 106.25 yen. We remain on the bull side of this market."
STERLING/DOLLAR: "Our short-term outlook remains bearish, with another new low close for the year retaining the focus on the $1.76 zone. The break point for the 50 percent retracement at $1.7375 into May.
A close below that level on today's weekly chart would add to the bearish tone of this developing down leg. Resistance shifts down to $1.7725 and the old low at $1.7765, $1.7792 (the 38.2 percent retracement) and the $1.7825 former low.
"Above that level would begin to stabilise prices to move sideways and test $1.7875, and the more important $1.7925 includes the steep daily down trendline ahead of another down trendline at $1.7975. Above the psychological $1.80 level would test $1.8045 and the $1.8075 zone, which remains key to the stabilisation process over the intermediate term."
EURO/DOLLAR: "Expecting continued tests of $1.1810 which has been the April medium-term corrective objective and then proceed higher to re-test $1.20 early next week. Resistance is coming in at the overnight high of $1.1940.
We still need a daily close above $1.1915 in order to end this test of $1.18 and start to move higher during the month of April, before resuming the decline in May. Am still expecting a move higher in the dollar to $1.0660 against the euro in late June."
DOLLAR/YEN: "Also in a temporary corrective rally. Will remain between 106.30 yen and 109.80 yen through the end of April, before resuming the decline back to 103.30 yen at the beginning of May."
STERLING/DOLLAR: "Similar to the euro, we declined just shy of $1.7590, which was the March corrective objective and expect a rally to only $1.8070 to complete a brief consolidation."
Currency bid prices at 10:42 A.M. EDT (1442 GMT). All data taken from Reuters calculated from the levels at 4:30 pm EDT (2030 GMT) in the previous New York session.
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