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Show us the jobs. That's what Wall Street will be hoping for in this week when the closely watched monthly jobs report and a fresh batch of economic data are set for release.
Investors will be searching for signs that the US economic recovery remains on track - and if they get some positive evidence, that could persuade them to buy stocks. If not - or if the economic reports send mixed signals - then stocks are likely to stay in a holding pattern or decline slightly.
The government's March payrolls report, not due until Friday, is likely to be the week's main event, particularly as questions have resurfaced about the sustainability of the economy's surprisingly strong rebound from recession.
Thursday's hefty rally notwithstanding, the stock market is still struggling to find its footing since it began a sharp retreat early this month.
This most recent sell-off, fuelled by geopolitical jitters and worries that stock prices may have gone too far too fast, has driven all three major US market gauges into negative territory for the year.
"The economy seems to have lost some of its strength," said Rick Meckler, president of investment firm LibertyView Asset Management. "That's a concern because it's what drives continued earnings growth, and it's leading some investors to conclude that stocks are at a plateau."
Speculation that employment growth is not strong enough to support consumer spending - a force that powers two-thirds of US economic growth - has been one of the main issues nagging stock investors in recent months, and it will put Friday's report in the spotlight.
Economists polled by Reuters predicted 103,000 new jobs were added to US payrolls in March, versus February's rise of only 21,000. They expect the unemployment rate will remain steady at 5.6 percent.
"This seems to the be one number that people care about, in terms of giving them confidence the economy is not slipping back into recession," Meckler said.
Investors also will be looking out for the Institute for Supply Management's March survey of the manufacturing sector, as well as monthly data on consumer sentiment, factory orders and construction spending.
The tech-packed Nasdaq Composite index and the blue chip Dow Jones industrial average both finished the week with modest gains, ending a two-week string of declines. For the week, the Nasdaq Composite climbed 1 percent and the Dow rose 0.26 percent. The S&P 500, however, slipped 0.15 percent, its third straight week of losses.
The market's strong rally over the past year sparked fears that stock prices had already finished factoring in all the positive news that the economy had to offer.
The pullback of recent weeks, however, means that investors' lofty expectations for the economy and corporate profits have come back to earth, giving stocks room to move higher, said Milton Ezrati, senior economic strategist at Lord Abbett & Co.
Expectations for solid, albeit slower, growth in the economy and corporate profits in the first quarter will keep stock investors in the mood to buy, Ezrati said.
That doesn't mean it's a straight shot up from here. Persistently high energy prices, security concerns, the dollar's weakness and the uncertainty of the upcoming US election could all help keep a cap on the market's gains.
The corporate earnings flow remains light next week, but a handful of retailers will issue their results at mid-week, including consumer electronics retailer Best Buy Co Inc, rival Circuit City and home goods retailer Bed Bath & Beyond. American Greetings Corp results are also due on Wednesday.
Analysts are expecting the operating earnings of the companies in the S&P 500 to rise by about 13 percent in the first quarter, a much more measured pace than the 24 percent gain they racked up in the final quarter of 2004.

Copyright Reuters, 2004

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