SEOUL: South Korean exports in September posted solid growth thanks to firmer fuel and chemicals prices, but the softening global economy is widely expected to drag on overseas sales by Asia's fourth-largest economy in the coming months.
Overseas shipments by South Korea, the world's seventh-largest exporter, rose 19.6 percent in September from a year earlier to reach $47.1 billion, while imports grew 30.5 percent to $45.7 billion, producing a surplus of $1.4 billion.
The robust figures for the whole of last month, released by the Ministry of Knowledge Economy, were the first from any major exporting economy. They suggest global demand did not ease as quickly as some investors had feared in recent weeks.
Analysts said South Korean exports would not suffer as severe a decline as that seen at the height of the 2008-2009 global financial crisis, but would experience a considerable slowdown over the coming months.
"High prices of oil and petrochemical products supported the overall export performance in value terms, but the effect will fade out as soon as the world economy cools," said Park Sang-hyun, chief economist at HI Investment & Securities.
"I expect (South Korean) export growth to fall to single-digit rates (year-on-year) in the fourth quarter."
Exports in September were led by oil products, cars and petrochemicals, that posted growth of between 31 percent and 57 percent over a year earlier in US dollar value terms.
Analysts surveyed by Reuters had forecast a median 20.5 percent rise in exports and a 30.3 percent gain in imports, over a year earlier.
The ministry's data is still provisional and would be revised by the middle of this month.
Exports during the July-September quarter were up 22.3 percent from a year before, above an 18.7 percent gain for the quarter to June, but below a 29.6 percent rise for the first quarter of this year.
An industry association said this week its survey index measuring how South Korean export companies assess their business outlook for the fourth quarter dipped to the worst in two and a half years.
The South Korean currency's steep decline in recent weeks should provide export companies with improved pricing power, but analysts said the absolute amount of global demand for goods was more important.
The won lost more than 9 percent of its value against the dollar in September alone, the worst since early 2009, on fears of capital flight out of South Korean markets towards a safe-haven group of assets.
Fears of a slowdown in the US and other major economies have battered global stock markets since August, along with a lingering fiscal crisis in Europe.
China was the biggest market for South Korean exports for this year to August, accounting for 23.8 percent of the total. The United States followed with 10.0 percent and Japan with 7.0 percent.
By product, electronics goods accounted for 28.1 percent of total exports for the January-August period, followed by ships and chemical products, each with 10.8 percent.
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