LONDON: Portuguese yields edged up on Wednesday and Lisbon saw its borrowing costs jump at auction as investors worried about more political uncertainty and a ratings slide that may force the country out of the ECB's quantitative easing scheme.
Fitch shaved its rating outlook on Portugal from positive to stable, a move seen as raising the risk that DBRS -- which has the investment grade rating Lisbon needs to qualify for QE -- might downgrade it at the end of next month.
In a sign of what may come for Portugal, an ECB spokesperson said on Tuesday that junk-rated Cyprus may be excluded from QE because it is likely to exit its bailout programme at the end of March. Countries must have an investment grade rating from one of the four agencies recognised by the ECB or be in a bailout programme in order to qualify for the 1.5 trillion euro bond-buying scheme.
The backstop of central bank bond buying has up until now helped reassure investors even though Portugal is governed by a fragile leftist coalition which has promised to roll back austerity imposed by their conservative predecessors.
Adding further uncertainty to the political picture, Portugal swore in its new centre-right president on Wednesday who has powers to veto laws, dissolve parliament, fire the government and call new elections.
President Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa said in his inauguration speech the country has to respect its international commitments, especially within the European Union, and maintain financial rigour to avoid future crises.
"The political and fiscal situation in Portugal is more uncertain, which suggest keeping a cautious bias on PGB (Portuguese government bond) spreads in general," Societe Generale strategist Ciaran O'Hagan said.
Portugal's 10-year bonds rose 3 basis points to 3.04 percent on Wednesday, on track for their first week of rises in four, but still some way off two-year highs of 4.38 percent hit in February.
All other euro zone yields also edged up on Wednesday as investors turned cautious ahead of a European Central Bank meeting on Thursday that could disappoint high market hopes. Borrowing costs in Portugal's first regular bond auction of the year rose sharply on Wednesday for both five and 10-year debt. Germany also sold 3.2 billion euros of two-year bonds while the euro zone bailout fund ESM sold around 1 billion euros of five-year bonds.
Analysts said the ECB's QE was particularly important to Lisbon because the central bank buys a higher proportion of its debt than elsewhere in the bloc. QE purchases are based on each country's contribution to its capital and not outstanding debt.
"Portugal will be among the countries where PSPP (QE) buying as a share of 2016 gross issuance will be highest, so it will be important that DBRS will continue to keep Portugal at investment grade next month," ING strategist Martin van Vliet said.
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