What determines voter turnout?

Political scientists have been dabbling over this age old question since democracy started making waves across the world. Some scholars have related rational voter behaviour to levels of income and education, limits of executive control indicated by high external debt and quality of bureaucracy. Others have linked it to unemployment rates and availability of information about candidates.
In Pakistan there has been no scientifically sound study of the determinants of voter turnout. However, the trend in province-wise voter turnout shows that voting behaviour may be linked to level of education and income.
For instance, the turnout has been consistently highest in Punjab, followed by Sindh, Khyber –Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan. This is by and large in tandem with the differences in per capita income and social development in these provinces.
Yet one cannot simply conclude a relationship between income and social development. If it was the case, then country-wide aggregate voter turnout would have risen in accordance with rising per capita income.
The answer lies in the distortions in the system, says Rasul Bakhsh Rais, a professor of political science at the Lahore School of Management Sciences.
Rais highlights four major determinants that drive voting behaviour in Pakistan. These include charismatic leadership that can mobilise the masses on the promises of change, hope and what not- case in point the rise of ZAB in 1970.
The second relates to the motivation of the parties to campaign in the elections – something that lacked in the 1990s when parties were booted out of government and therefore there was little motivation for them to fight the elections.
The third factor relates to the number of candidates a party fields in an elections whereas the fourth is the role of youth.
The good thing about the upcoming elections is that except for the number of candidates, three of the four factors will drive the voting behaviour.
While yet untested, PTI’s Imran Khan brings charismatic leadership, drawing crowds upon crowds across the country. Second: most, if not all, parties are motivated to contest the election since none of them have been booted out. And lastly, the youth bulge.
These factors should provide enough impetus to the whole election fervour across the country. In addition, the recent decision by the Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP) to allow ‘none-of-the-above’ box on the ballot paper should further encourage voters to come out and have their say.
If ECP’s proposal is approved by the caretaker Prime Minister, then it will up to the media to drive both decisive and indecisive voters out of their homes.
Bear in mind that, if the 2009 study by Centre for Studies and Researches on International Development, Université d’Auvergne is any guide, it will be the radio that will have the most impact amongst all types of media outlets.
The study titled “Turnout in Developing Countries: The Effect of Mass Media on National Voter Participation” concluded that media penetration, as measured by radio ownership, fosters voter turnout, whereas newspapers circulation and television ownership are not as significant as commonly perceived. Go, get them RJs.

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Trend in voter turnout by province

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                                      Khyber

      Pakitsan    Punjab    Sindh  Pakhtunkhwa  Balochistan

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1970     59.8%     68.7%    60.1%     48.4%           40.6%

1977     58.3%     67.5%    40.4%     47.2%           31.7%

1985     53.7%     60.1%    44.4%     40.6%           37.4%

1988     42.7%     46.4%    42.4%     33.9%           25.7%

1990     45.2%     49.3%    43.3%     35.7%           29.2%

1993     37.6%     48.2%    20.6%     34.6%           24.9%

1997     36.1%     40.5%    31.6%     29.5%           23.1%

2002     41.8%     46.1%    38.2%     35.0%           29.9%

2008     44.4%     48.5%    44.8%     33.5%           31.4%

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