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Markets

Oil edges further above $102, supply risks support

Published Updated

imageLONDON: Oil edged further above $102 a barrel on Monday with support from geopolitical tensions in Ukraine and Libya, although ample supply limited the rebound from last week's 14-month low.

Libyan exports have risen in the past few weeks, although a continued recovery looks uncertain given fighting, analysts say.

Fire destroyed the terminal at Tripoli's main airport on Sunday.

Brent crude rose 14 cents to $102.43 a barrel by 0917 GMT. It reached a 14-month low of $101.07 on Aug. 19.

US crude was down 4 cents at $93.61 a barrel.

"Oil prices are likely to stabilise, so we no longer expect prices to slide any further," said Carsten Fritsch, analyst at Commerzbank. "Risks to the oil supply are still considerable."

Weak demand and healthy production have helped create a supply glut in the Atlantic Basin, pushing Brent into its longest contango since early 2011, Morgan Stanley said.

In a contango market, immediate supply is cheaper than oil for delivery later.

"We expect Brent to trade in a slightly lower range for much of the third quarter, barring any geopolitical escalation," the bank's analysts, led by Adam Longson, said in a note.

"Libyan supplies could trickle back, but maintenance and security issues should keep exports subdued." Libya raised its output to 612,000 barrels per day (bpd) as of last week. Still, that is far short of levels of about 1.4 million bpd pumped a year ago.

In Europe, Russian President Vladimir Putin will meet his Ukrainian counterpart Petro Poroshenko for the first time in months on Tuesday to try to reach a compromise on Ukraine.

The dollar index rose to a one-year peak as the US Federal Reserve prepared to lay the groundwork for the central bank's first interest rate increase in nearly a decade.

A stronger dollar makes dollar-denominated commodities such as oil more expensive for holders of other currencies, and tends to weigh on prices.

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