LONDON: Brent crude oil prices on Tuesday were close to 14-month lows reached the previous day as weak demand and improving supplies weighed on the market, although global political risk still provided some support.
Brent shed nearly $2 on Monday as investor worries over conflict in Iraq eased and as higher Libyan oil output added to already ample supplies.
Brent crude oil prices for delivery in October were up 11 cents at $101.71 a barrel by 0940 GMT, after closing $1.93 a barrel lower on Monday, but traders said that the market remained weak.
U.S. crude for September delivery was 27 cents higher at $96.68 a barrel. The contract, which expires on Wednesday, ended the previous session down 94 cents.
"There is still plenty of oil in the market, mostly due to weak demand from refineries in Europe and Asia," said Yusuke Seta, a commodity sales manager at Newedge Japan.
Hedge funds and other big speculators cut their bets on rising Brent crude oil prices to the lowest level in two years, IntercontinentalExchange data showed on Monday, reflecting ample supply despite fighting in Libya and Iraq.
"It (oil) is still under pressure from a combination of factors: plentiful supply, a lack of supply outages and weak refinery demand. In addition, the continued withdrawal of speculative financial investors is exacerbating the downward movement," Commerzbank said in a research note on Tuesday.
But analysts said crude prices may find support around current levels as the downward pressure from speculators ends.
"The majority of speculative investors have doubtless withdrawn ... meaning that the selling pressure from this side should now abate," Commerzbank said.
"Brent could test $100 but should find very strong support at that level," Seta of Newedge Japan said.
Although a price much below $100 could lead to some support as some producers struggle to make money, current market levels are unlikely to be a concern yet for OPEC's top exporter Saudi Arabia, which favours an oil price of around $100 a barrel.
Saudi Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi said in June, when OPEC last met to review output policy, that "$100, $110, $95 is a good price."
POLITICAL FACTORS
While traders saw little risk to oil markets on the supply and demand side, political factors still featured highly in market sentiment.
In Ukraine, government forces advanced on pro-Russian rebels, but the risks were far from over as fighting continued. Dozens of people, including women and children, were killed on Monday as they fled fighting in eastern Ukraine when their convoy of buses was hit by rocket fire.
In the Middle East, Iraqi and Kurdish forces recaptured Iraq's biggest dam from Islamist militants with the help of U.S. air strikes, securing a strategic objective in the fighting that threatens to break up the oil-producing country.
U.S. commercial crude oil and refined product stockpiles were forecast to have fallen in the week to Aug. 15, a preliminary Reuters survey of analysts showed.
The analysts estimated on average that crude oil stocks decreased 1.5 million barrels last week. Distillate stockpiles were seen down 200,000 barrels, and gasoline inventories down 1.7 million barrels.
The survey was taken ahead of weekly inventory reports from industry group the American Petroleum Institute (API) due at 2030 GMT and from the U.S. Department of Energy's Energy Information Administration (EIA) due on Wednesday.
Despite falling inventories in the United States, large crude builds globally in the second quarter have been reflected in the weak market structure known as contango, in which prices for prompt delivery are cheaper than for future months, analysts at Energy Aspects said in a note.
"Signs of a sustained demand recovery, and hence stock draws, are needed to change the shape of the further forward Brent structure, even if potential new supply disruptions did not materialise," the analysts said.
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