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Markets

Dollar stumbles as weak jobs data spurs Fed policy rethink

Published Updated

imageNEW YORK: The dollar dropped to its lowest in four weeks against the yen on Monday as last week's soft US jobs data dampened optimism about the outlook for the world's largest economy and fueled uncertainty as to the pace of the Federal Reserve's reduction in stimulus.

The dollar's weakness also helped push the Australian dollar to a one-month high and the New Zealand dollar to an 8-week high against the greenback.

"An unexpectedly weak jobs report has fanned uncertainty about the outlook for Fed policy plans," said Joe Manimbo, senior market analyst at Western Union Business Solutions in Washington.

"The dollar would be vulnerable to further signs of US fragility which would run the risk of buying the Fed more time to keep currency-pressuring policies in place for longer."

In early New York trading, the dollar slid nearly 1.0 percent against the yen to 103.13 yen, after earlier falling to 102.97, its lowest level since Dec. 18.

Dollar/yen was one of the strongest-performing major currency pairs last year and many hedge funds have been betting the trend will continue as the Fed cuts back its huge bond-buying programme even as the Bank of Japan continues to provide even more stimulus this year.

But many traders were taken by surprise by the US non-farm payrolls data, which showed a rise of 74,000, well short of the 196,000 analysts had expected.

Yields on 10-year US Treasuries, which were above 3 percent in the middle of last week, have fallen to around 2.85 percent, their lowest since mid-December, lending less support to the dollar.

The implied yields on Fed funds futures also tumbled as markets pushed back the timing of the first interest rate hike out towards late-2015 from mid-2015.

Investors were also looking for direction with Japanese financial markets closed on Monday for a public holiday.

"The market is taking its leads from US Treasury markets, which are generally weighing on the dollar across the board," said Adam Cole, global head of FX strategy at RBC Capital Markets.

"One of the strongest consensus views was that the dollar would outperform. Markets didn't have a (jobs) number like that on the radar at all." He said he expects the dollar to soften against the yen this quarter.

Dollar selling against major currencies was driven by computer portfolios, according to one London-based trader.

The yen also pushed higher versus the euro, which fell nearly 1.0 percent to 140.89 yen. The euro touched a low of 140.48 yen, its lowest level in six weeks.

The euro was down slightly against the dollar at $1.3657 , staying above a one-month trough of $1.3548 hit on Thursday.

Volumes were high in the Australian dollar, which has been weak against the US dollar in recent months after comments by the central bank governor saying he would prefer to see the local dollar lower. The Aussie hit a one-month high of US$0.9077 and was last at US$0.9075, up 0.69percent.

The New Zealand dollar touched an eight-week high of US$0.8387, and was last at US$0.8371, up 0.8 percent.

The Canadian dollar headed back towards its lowest in more than four years against the greenback after data showed the country unexpectedly shed jobs last month.

The loonie, which fell in every session last week against its US peer, last stood at C$1.0869 per dollar. The US dollar had scaled a peak of C$1.0944 on Friday, the greenback's strongest level since October 2009.

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