TOKYO: The dollar won a reprieve on Monday after last week's steep slide but traders said it could head for a test of its all-time low against a basket of currencies if the US Federal Reserve takes a cautious stance towards tightening later in the week.
In thin trade due to Easter holidays in Australia and much of Europe, Japanese importer bids for dollars were enough to boost the US currency against the yen and help it to erase earlier losses against other currencies.
Still, the combination of upbeat global growth, signs of weaker US growth and the spectre of dovish Fed policy is expected to support fund flows to higher-yielding currencies such as the euro and the Australian dollar from the US currency, traders said.
"I doubt there's much dollar carry-trade out there but when market players are eager to take risk, they tend to look to interest rate gaps on speculation that the dollar could be used as a funding currency," said Kimihiko Tomita, the head of foreign exchange at State Street Capital Markets.
With dollar interest rates seen taking a pivotal role in the market, players are looking to a news conference by Chairman Ben Bernanke on Wednesday after the central bank's two-day policy meeting -- the first regularly scheduled news briefing by a Fed chief in the central bank's 97-year history -- to see how the Fed plans to seek an exit from its easy monetary policy.
"It's all up the Fed and Bernanke's stance at his news conference. The dollar could fall further depending on US interest rates," said a trader at a Japanese bank.
In Asian trade, the Australian dollar rose to a fresh 29-year high of $1.0777, as the prices of gold and commodities continue to rise, before slipping back to $1.0735.
Gold hit a lifetime high while silver surged 4 percent on the US futures market.
The euro/dollar rate gave up early gains to stand flat at $1.4568, but it remained near a 16-month high of $1.4649 hit last week.
Against the yen, the dollar ticked up 0.4 percent to about 82.20 yen, helped by expectations of Japanese investor buying, including by asset management firms which tend to launch new investment trusts at the end of the month.
Traders also said dollar selling by Japanese exporters had been limited since last month's earthquake as supply chain disruptions were making it difficult to export their products.
Japanese automakers said on Monday their production in March fell more than 50 percent from a year earlier, with Toyota Motor , the world's largest carmaker, reporting a 62.7 percent drop in output.
The dollar index, which measures the currency's value against six major currencies, rose slightly to 74.07, but many trader says it could test a three-year low of 73.735 hit last week. A break of that could open the way for a test of the record low of 70.698 hit in 2008.
The dollar has been falling due to perceptions that the United States is set to maintain an easy monetary policy even as most other major global economies, with the exception of disaster-stricken Japan, look to tighter monetary policy to rein in inflation.
Some analysts say worries about rising US debt and political bickering in Washington over how to tackle the US budget deficit are also undermining the dollar, making it easier for speculators to sell the currency, although there is no evidence that foreign investors are dumping their US assets.
As speculators have already piled up short dollar positions, some market players think the dollar could see a rebound soon.
Data from the US Commodity and Futures Trading Commission showed that speculators remained overwhelmingly bearish on the dollar, even after trimming their huge long positions in the euro and the Australian dollar in the week to April 19.
Still, many traders think that, for the dollar to rise, it will need a clear signal from the Fed that the central bank will be on course to raise rates -- a scenario many traders are sceptical about.
The Fed is widely expected to stick to completing its $600 billion asset purchase programme in June but many market players think a backdrop of softer-than-expected economic data, weak housing markets and possible government austerity measures to tackle the budget deficit all make it more likely the Fed will keep its support for the recovery in place for some time.
Many analysts believe the US central bank will hold the size of its balance sheet steady by reinvesting maturing assets after June to avoid a passive tightening -- an issue that will likely be discussed at the April 26-27 meeting.
Comments
Comments are closed for this article.