Russian wheat export prices fell for the sixth week running last week, following global benchmarks and a tumbling rouble, which is likely to trigger domestic price growth this week, analysts said on Tuesday. Russian wheat with 12.5% protein content loaded from Black Sea ports fell by $1 to $213 a tonne free on board (FOB) at the end of last week, SovEcon agriculture consultancy said. Barley fell by $4 to $181 a tonne.
IKAR, another agricultural consultancy in Moscow, quoted prices on wheat for delivery by end of March at $212 a tonne, down $1. Prices on wheat from the new harvest, which is due to arrive this summer, are being set in negotiations at between $192-$193 a tonne, IKAR added.
"Commodities remain under strong pressure and wheat is not an exception," SovEcon analysts wrote, after a deal on global oil output cuts fell apart last week, hammering oil prices. The Russian rouble slumped to its weakest level since early 2016 on Monday.
Russia exported 28.1 million tonnes of grain between the start of the 2019/20 season on July 1 and March 5, down 19% from a year earlier, SovEcon said, citing customs data. Of this, exports of wheat made up 24.2 million tonnes.
SovEcon sees Russia's March grain exports at 2.1 million tonnes.
Russia's domestic market was relatively stable last week but SovEcon expects rouble-denominated grain prices to rise this week due to the weaker rouble.
Any rapid growth in domestic grain prices is usually a headache for Russian officials concerned about rising costs for flour millers or meat producers. In previous years the trend has prompted them to launch official or non-official measures to slow down exports.
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