CPEC Authority

PM Khan’s decision to set up CPEC Authority for quick and judicious completion of CPEC projects is a tacit acceptance that his government is unable to fix the cogs of governance and does not expect to do so in the near future. Hence, the need for an ‘authority’. Will the move be successful?

There is no doubt that the cogs of governance, whether in terms of coordination or in terms of capacity, have not been working in this country. A relevant case in point is the CPEC Centre of Excellence (CCE).

If the Planning Commission was supposed to look at the coordination aspects of the CPEC, the CCE initially housed at Pakistan Institute of Development Economics (PIDE) was envisaged to look at research aspects of CPEC.

Inaugurated in May 2017 with much fanfare, the CCE is yet to take a lead on producing quality CPEC-related research. Instead, it’s known to have been bitterly seeking independence from PIDE that almost led to infighting between the two bodies; and it has had more than five executive directors in the short time that it has existed. The executive director is the top position at the CCE.

But it’s not as if the Planning Commission has been a bastion of governance. One frequent complain is that the CPEC coordination office at the P-block treats the CCE as a database office or advocacy office. In the latter sense, P-block only wants the CCE to write op-eds in newspapers, make fancy power point presentations, and write only those ‘policy briefs’ that are to show CPEC in the positive light.

In the former sense, they want the CCE to provide quick information and ballpark calculations that is to be fed into serious CPEC policy and action. They ignore the fact that research, especially in matters like the CPEC, are not supposed to be back of the envelope estimates. Research is a long-drawn affair – and the P-block given its own intellectual weaknesses cannot direct or supervise. Recall that Planning does not even have a chief economist for nearly a year!

Sources close to P-block have been reporting for some time that the CPEC coordination office has been eyeing to bring the CCE directly under its own wing, if not to separate itself from P-Block, take the CCE under its wing and create a new entity where coordination and research are under one roof.

But whether or not those theories are correct, the poor affairs of governance at the P-block and the CCE are some of the genuine reasons why the creation of CPEC authority may make sense. There are of course other signs, such as delays in some Gwadar related projects, where P-block could not get the ball rolling in a timely manner.

This, however, does not necessarily mean that the CPEC Authority can deliver. Authorities are made to get things done with iron hand; think Wapda, Railway or say forest preservation authorities. Research and coordination, which are to be the core functions of CPEC Authority, are soft skills, which makes it quick a struggle to understand how an Authority can deliver. This is not a semantic argument for the sake of critique. Structure reflect thinking; if the government wants to do coordination and research through iron hand, then good luck.

Bear in mind that this coordination business is intricate affair by default. Take for example the case of Special Economic Zones (SEZ). Writing for PIDE (Research Brief 01:2019), Dr Ghulam Samad rightly flagged that “establishment of SEZs is a very coordinated effort of around 23 agencies in Pakistan at federal, and provincial levels.”

Keep in mind that “after the 18 amendment, industrialization is now a provincial subject, and SEZs authorities are established in each province to facilitate SEZs.” In any case, SEZ, which are envisioned to be the next phase of CPEC, are not exactly the panacea. Even in China, the failure rate of SEZ is “a huge 77 percent”, according to Samad’s research.

The next phase of CPEC is slated to be less on hard infrastructure – road or power – and more about business-to-business coordination, coordination for the SEZs, connecting provinces with Chinese businesses and provincial leader, agriculture and trade coordination. This is a soft ball game, and requires delicate hand of a political office holder, especially considering the politically hostile domestic environment.

Then again, when the Board of Investment, which is chaired by the PM office, has been unable to coordinate doing business reforms, then which other political office can really get the CPEC ship up and running. Competence and coordination, Mr. Prime Minister, and not just being free of corruption, is what runs a country!

If the PM must have an Authority to manage CPEC, then it must be ensured that it does not wing CPEC research because if the quality of research is poor, then greatness in coordination and implementation cannot be achieved even by an Authority. Perhaps that is why the CPEC Authority has six MP-1 positions in its research wing as against only one in the CCE. Or have these top positions only been created to staff certain loved ones. It shall be found out soon.