LONDON: German government bonds fell on Thursday on optimism Greece would gain enough creditor support to restructure its debt and avoid a messy default but losses were contained with Athens' finances still seen as unsustainble.
Trading was relatively light, however, before the deadline for investors to say whether they will participate in the Greek debt swap and a European Central Bank press conference at 1330 GMT after it left rates on hold at 1 percent.
Major banks and pension funds said on Wednesday they would take up the Greek offer, making it increasingly likely the deal would pass.
But while that may bring some short-term relief to markets, their focus was already shifting: to Portugal, seen as the next most likely to restructure its debt; to Spain, which has relaxed its deficit targets; and to looming elections in Greece and France, as well as persistent fears Greece may need yet more help.
"It looks quite ambitious to see Bunds rising further but I see no reason for a turnaround in the near future," said Christoph Kind, head of asset allocation at Frankfurt Trust, which manages assets worth 16 billion euros.
"If you look at fundamentals there are good reasons why interest rates do not rise. Growth is weak, inflation is not really picking up and monetary policy is extremely loose. So why should yields rise?"
June Bund futures were 31 ticks lower at 138.25. The March contract, which expires on Thursday marked record highs on Wednesday of 140.52.
"Despite the rally in the periphery, Bunds still seem incredibly well supported and the Greek deal being done is really in the price already," a trader said.
"Bunds are really a liquidity play now rather than an economic play."
Ten-year German yields were 2.7 basis points higher at 1.81 percent but still close to the lower end of this year's trading range.
"Any post-PSI relief rally in risk assets is likely to be short-lived...not least owing to the possibly rapid realisation that Greek debt is unsustainable even in the wake of this restructuring, which we see as but the first attempt," Rabobank rate strategists said in a note.
The ECB is expected to signal it has played its part in fighting the euro zone crisis after pumping more than 1 trillion euros into the banking system since the end of December, action which has had the knock-on effect of lowering yields on bonds issued by Italy and Spain, in particular.
Italian 10-year government bond yields were down 14 bps at 4.81 percent, with the Spanish equivalent 6.1 bps lower at 5.03 percent.
Italian bonds have outperformed Spanish paper consistently this month after Spain revised its 2012 budget deficit target to 5.8 percent of gross national product from 4.4 percent.
The trader said that many investors who track an index of euro zone government bonds had moved from underweight positions on Italian bonds but there were more reservations about Spain.
"We saw a big bit of reweighting of Italy a little while back, but the markets which are still underweight, where there not really a hurry to jump back in, are Spain and France, Spain because of concerns over the regions and France with elections coming up," he said.
Comments
Comments are closed for this article.