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Markets

Stocks hit 6-month high after LTRO, rand, zloty gain

Published Updated

 LONDON: Emerging stocks rose more than 1 percent to their highest since early August on Wednesday, following a high take-up for the European Central Bank's cheap loan offer, and the rand and zloty hit multi-month highs.

A total of 800 banks borrowed almost 530 billion euros in the ECB's second long-term refinancing operation (LTRO), bringing the sum of the combined operations to more than 1 trillion euros.

Much of that extra cash is expected to find its way into higher-yielding emerging markets.

"The LTRO amount is a little bit bigger than the market was expecting ... that's quite supportive for emerging markets," said Sebastian Barbe, head of emerging markets FX and fixed income strategy at Credit Agricole in Paris.

"I don't think it will last too long as the rally has been so strong since start of the year, plus we have the oil prices."

The MSCI emerging equities index rose more than 1 percent to its highest since early August and the Thomson Reuters emerging Europe index rose 1 percent to six-day highs.

In currency markets, the zloty hit a six-month high against the euro while the rand hit a five-month peak against the dollar, helped by data showing South African credit demand quickened in January.

Emerging sovereign debt spreads tightened six basis points to 358 bps over US Treasuries.

Recent high oil prices have been boosting Russian assets, with Brent crude rising above $122 on Wednesday, snapping two days of losses.

Russian five-year credit default swaps are trading around their lowest in four months, at 184 bps according to Markit, reflecting lower expectations of debt restructuring or default.

The rouble was trading close to five-month highs and Russian stocks rose more than 1 percent towards recent six-month highs.

The Turkish lira hit a one-week high, recovering partly as a result of the dips in oil prices this week. Turkish assets are among those which have been under pressure due to high oil prices, as Turkey has to import its energy needs.

Turkey's trade deficit narrowed in January but came in at an above-forecast $7 billion, data showed on Wednesday.

Hungary's central bank adopted a cautious stance by keeping interest rates on hold on Tuesday but it also discussed a small rate cut, which signals rates could be lowered if the country signs a credit deal with the IMF and European Union.

Hungary's stocks rose 1 percent on Wednesday, in line with gains elsewhere, and the forint edged up within recent ranges against the euro.

"The wait-and-see approach can continue in the next few months and after the EU-IMF agreement (earliest end-April/start of May), a gradual rate cut cycle can be started," analysts at ING said in a client note.

Serbia is expected to become a candidate to join the European Union at an EU summit this week, seen as a positive for its markets.

The dinar is trading close to record lows against the euro, however, after the IMF suspended its programme to Serbia earlier this month, for breaching debt and deficit targets.

"We need to see the IMF programme back on track before we can be comfortable about the fundamentals underpinning the dinar," said Societe Generale analysts in a client note.

Copyright Reuters, 2012

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