Global grain supplies are poised to fall to a three-year low in the 2018/19 season due to a drawdown in stocks coupled with a slight dip in output, the International Grains Council (IGC) said on Thursday. The inter-governmental body, in a monthly report, nudged up its forecast for 2018/19 world grain production by one million tonnes to 2.089 billion tonnes.
The IGC lifted its forecast for global corn (maize) output in the 2018/19 season by one million tonnes to 1.055 billion tonnes. It also increased its expectation for global wheat production by three million tonnes to 742 million tonnes. However, it trimmed its forecast for global carryover stocks by four million tonnes to 556 million tonnes, signalling a sharper drawdown than previously anticipated.
"Total grains production in 2018/19 is projected to be only a little below the season before," the IGC said. "However, taking account of reduced opening stocks, total supply is set to decline to a three-year low." This would be the second consecutive decline in global carryover stocks. The IGC trimmed its expectations for consumption for the 2018/19 season by three million tonnes to 2.136 billion tonnes, although it remained on course for a rise from the prior season.
"Another year of consumption growth is anticipated, with food, feed and industrial uses all expected to expand," the IGC said. The IGC also nudged up its forecast for global soybean production in 2018/19 by one million tonnes to 356 million tonnes but reduced its estimate for the prior season by three million tonnes to 336 million.
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