Canadian farmers expect to plant 21.4 million acres of canola in 2018, down 7 percent from a record-high 22.997 million in 2017 and less than trade expectations, a Statistics Canada survey released on Friday showed. Statscan gave no reason for the decline.
It also projected 2018 all-wheat seedings at 25.3 million acres, up 12.8 percent from a year earlier and the most since 2013. The government projected seedings of durum wheat, used for pasta, at 5.8 million acres, up 11 percent from 2017. Most analysts had expected an increase in canola seedings. The average estimate in a Reuters analyst poll was 23.7 million acres (9.576 million hectares), which would have been an all-time high for the crop.
"It's just the most profitable crop out there. The canola carry-out is higher than last year but the farmer still has some very good prices," said Jerry Klassen, manager at trading house GAP SA Grains and Produits. ICE Canada canola futures came off session lows when the data was released but were lower on the day at midsession, with the most-active July contract down 40 cents at $531.70 per tonne as of 10:47 am CDT (1547 GMT).
Some traders expect the canola plantings number to rise in subsequent acreage reports. Statscan said its report was based on a survey of about 11,600 farmers conducted from March 2 to March 29. "The March intentions number on canola tends to be low," said Dave Reimann, market analyst for Cargill's MarketSense program. "We are seeing maybe a muted (market) reaction to the number so far because frankly people are braced that the final number will be higher." The government is scheduled to release updated Canadian plantings figures on June 29.
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