New voters are real deal

Second best does not count for anything in the Pakistani election system. The PTI learnt it the hard way in 2013 – securing 17 percent of the total votes polled in Punjab, runner-up on 58 out of 148 national assembly seats – yet securing just 5 percent of the total seats in Punjab. On the other hand, the PML-N secured 81 percent seats with a share of 40 percent in the total votes polled in the province.

Come 2018 elections, the battleground, as always remains Punjab, by virtue of having 148 out of 272 seats. The two frontrunners this time around in Punjab are unmistakably PML-N and PTI. One is banking on its performance delivery in the province for 10 years and in centre for five. The other is likely to bank on jailed sentences and the corruption narrative, having nothing to show for performance in the province, being out of power. But there is another very critical variable that could play the decisive role, especially in Punjab, and that is the new electorates.

The voter base in Punjab has expanded by 23 percent over 2013 electoral rolls – which is more than double the average expansion of 10 percent in previous polls from 1988-2013. In absolute terms, Punjab has 11.4 million new voters over 2018 – the highest such addition between two general elections.

In previous incidences of the voter based expanding in double digits (1993,2002,2008) PML-N failed to form government. In instances of single digit addition in electorate (1990,1997,2013), the PML-N did exceedingly well. This does not necessarily mean the new voters are not fond of voting for the PML-N, as many other factors have played their part in the aforementioned election outcomes, and this piece of stat could just be a coincidence- but a worth mentioning one at that.

So the added votes per constituency in Punjab average 77,118 - which is three times the average addition of votes in all elections since 1988. The PML-N’s average victory margin in Punjab in the last elections was 39,340 votes per constituency. Leaving all factors aside, the new voters alone carry more significance than any other variable.

It is safe to assume, that the bulk of additional voter base will be first time voters, mostly young. The jury is out on what side the majority of youth is. Also, first timers are more likely to vote, than the rest of the electorate. Whichever party is able to gather more of the new voters seems likely to either consolidate its previous position or spring a massive surprise in Punjab. More on Punjab’s voting patterns and other factors alter.