Two rainmakers

Two strongmen, operating in two different parts of the globe and rising through two remarkably different governance systems, may end up leaving a huge mark on postmodern history. One is Donald J Trump, under whose presidency there is never a dull moment in global news cycle. And the other is Xi Jinping, the current Chinese President who, after some constitutional amendments, might rule for a lifetime if he wished to.

America’s latest diplomatic opening with North Korea has folks wondering if Trump could succeed where other US presidents failed: neutralize the North Korean nuclear threat for good. This May, for the first time in postwar history, a sitting US President will meet the leader of the hermit kingdom. Ceasing their volleys of sharp insults thrown each other’s way, both Trump and Kim Jong-Un Jr. now look eager for the powwow. The fact that the summit between the two mercurial leaders will be held without any preconditions could render this moot nothing more than a photo-op. Both countries have hardliner positions. The American establishment wants the North’s complete denuclearization; whereas Pyongyang deems heavy US military presence on the Korean peninsula a direct, potent threat to its territorial sovereignty. North Korea may be feeling the bite of global sanctions, but Trump didn’t have to readily agree to meet.

But when it comes to US-North Korea relations, even a photo-op has significant value for global peace. Diplomatic observers feel that Trump has his “Nixon in China” moment, paving the way for the unthinkable. He could, over time, cajole Kim Jr. into giving up his nuclear ambitions, in return for Western approval and assistance to rebuild the isolated economy. Even limited success with Kim Jr. could motivate Trump to work with and through US allies to achieve desired results on other issues.

Watching closely would be China, which has historically used its influence over Pyongyang as leverage with its Western counterparts. The ruling Communist Party of China (CPC) has now essentially given up on their post-Mao collective leadership model introduced by the reformer Deng Xiaoping. Instead, President Xi is casting himself in the mould of Chairman Mao’s authoritarian leadership.

Xi’s expanding power grip, which has taken some Western observers by surprise, can be explained by domestic factors. Unlike in Mao years when communism was ferociously enforced in China, the Chinese middle class, who have grown used to capitalist ways, support their one-party state because it works for them. No love is lost for liberal democracies, which produced Brexit and President Trump. But this still potentially exposes the CPC to irrelevance when the “system” doesn’t work for them.

An impending economic transition might cause growing pains for middle class in coming years. Xi’s consolidation of power may be aimed at defeating factionalism and dissent within the CPC vis-à-vis alternative response to economic struggles. If the center holds, the one-party state can navigate choppy waters. Throw in some nationalist fervor – an increasingly assertive and proud China has been growing its presence abroad, both militarily and economically – to make the nation focus on different things.

Trump and Xi getting their way probably has mixed implications for Pakistan. Xi ruling for at least another might provide even more momentum to the Belt and Road Initiative, of which CPEC is the flagship. But Trump’s learning through North Korea that he could force a nation to change behaviour by applying “maximum pressure” – both military and economic – doesn’t bode well for a beleaguered Pakistan.