ABIDJAN: Ivory Coast’s 2026/27 cocoa mid-crop could almost halve after weak and erratic El Nino-linked rains in October did little to help flowering and pod development, according to exporters, pod counters and cooperatives.
The world’s top cocoa producer is expected to harvest 300,000 to 350,000 metric tons of cocoa during the April to September mid-crop, down from about 600,000 tons last season, three pod counters and five exporters told Reuters.
They now forecast total 2026/27 production at 1.5 million to 1.6 million tons, down from around 1.7 million tons projected in September and 25 percent to 30 percent below the 2.15 million tons delivered to ports last season.
The current El Nino is among the strongest on record by some measures. It is typically associated with weak rains across West Africa’s cocoa belt from September to November, followed by strong, dry Harmattan winds.
‘A VERY AVERAGE MID-CROP’ “We had some rains in the second half of October, but they were irregular,” said one pod counter. “They won’t change the picture for the main crop and they revived concerns about a very average mid-crop.” A month ago, industry participants had hoped October rains would provide relief for trees weakened by prolonged dry weather.
They now say the rains arrived too late and were too uneven to have a meaningful impact. Of 17 industry participants surveyed by Reuters, only three said plantations looked better than a year ago.
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