KARACHI: Pakistan’s cotton production has reached 3.208 million bales, with Sindh contributing 1.993 million and Punjab 1.215 million, according to figures released this week.
Local cotton prices fell sharply, tracking a decline in New York futures. Lint prices across different qualities dropped by Rs1,000 to Rs1,500 per maund, while the spot rate lost Rs700 to close at Rs17,800 per maund. Trading activity, however, picked up during the period.
Market sources said the supply of phutti (seed cotton) had fallen significantly. Meanwhile, crops in several growing areas are under pressure from pest infestations, linked to inadequate rainfall and dry conditions. Attacks by pink bollworm, mealy bug, whitefly and jessed have been reported, threatening both yield and quality.
Speaking on the sector’s wider role, APTMA Patron-in-Chief Gohar Ejaz said textile exports had grown strongly over the past 15 years, rising from USD10 billion in 2010 to USD19 billion in 2025, while exports of other commodities had failed to keep pace.
Commerce Minister Jam Kamal Khan argued that if the government sets a minimum support price (MSP) for wheat to boost production, it should do the same for phutti.
Cotton sector leader Malik Talat Sohail said the 18 per cent sales tax on cottonseed cake and cottonseed had earlier been withdrawn but was reimposed in the following budget. He said the sector would again push for its removal.
Pakistan’s cotton market remained under heavy selling pressure last week after a sharp drop in New York futures, with local prices falling by Rs1,000 to Rs1,500 per maund.
The Karachi Cotton Association’s Spot Rate Committee also cut its spot rate by Rs700 per maund.
Market sources said weaker international prices pushed the domestic market lower. However, arrivals of phutti (seed cotton) have not risen significantly, which limits the scope for a steeper fall in local rates. Ginners are also reluctant to sell at sharply lower prices.
Meanwhile, major textile groups are expected to step up cotton imports to take advantage of the steep fall in global prices.
The domestic crop is also under strain in several growing areas because of dry weather and inadequate rainfall. Farmers report severe infestations of pests, including pink bollworm, whitefly and mealy bug.
Gomomal, a farmer from Umerkot, told Business Recorder that pink bollworm and leaf curl virus had hit crops in Umerkot and surrounding areas. He said that 20 to 25 truckloads of phutti typically leave Umerkot at this time of year, but only three to four have been shipped so far.
He added that the quality of the phutti is also poor. Similar complaints are coming from several cotton-growing areas of Punjab, raising concerns over both the size and quality of this year’s crop.
Pakistan’s textile exports have risen from about USD10 billion in 2010 to roughly USD19 billion, while exports from all other sectors have stayed flat at around USD10 billion over the same period, All Pakistan Textile Mills Association (APTMA) Patron-in-Chief Gohar Ejaz said.
He said the figures showed the textile sector alone had added USD9-10 billion to the country’s exports, and that it still accounts for about 60 per cent of the total.
Concerns have meanwhile emerged over the future of Karachi’s historic Cotton Exchange Building. The Karachi Cotton Association (KCA) said a case on ownership of the building, involving the Karachi Metropolitan Corporation (KMC), is still pending before the Sindh High Court, with no final decision made.
The KCA has objected to a reported decision, attributed to Interior Minister Mohsin Naqvi, to convert the building into a Grand Khidmat Markaz, saying the matter is sub judice.
In Sindh and Punjab, lint was priced at Rs17,400-17,800 per maund and phutti at Rs8,600-9,200 per 40 kg. In Balochistan, lint ranged from Rs17,800 to Rs17,900 per maund, and phutti from Rs8,700 to Rs9,300 per 40 kg.
The KCA’s Spot Rate Committee cut the spot rate by Rs700 per maund to Rs17,800.
Karachi Cotton Brokers Forum Chairman Naseem Usman said the global cotton market saw a marked bearish trend, with New York futures quoted at 77.50-82.30 US cents per pound.
The USDA’s weekly export sales report showed 202,600 bales sold for the 2026-27 marketing year. Vietnam led buyers with 51,200 bales, followed by Pakistan (40,600) and China (38,400).
For 2027-28, sales totalled 39,200 bales. Malaysia was the top buyer with 30,800 bales, followed by Honduras (7,700) and Japan (200).
Exports during the reporting period came to 149,500 bales. Vietnam was again the leading destination with 49,800 bales, followed by India (25,300) and Pakistan (15,800).
The latest report released by the Pakistan Cotton Ginners Association (PCGA) presents detailed data on cotton arrivals up to September 30, 2026. Based on data collected from ginning factories across the country, the report shows a moderate increase in overall production, along with provincial comparisons among Punjab, Sindh and Balochistan. Performance in major cotton belt districts has also contributed to a somewhat improved overall trend.
As of September 30, 2026, total cotton arrivals across the country have been recorded at 3,208,402 bales, which is 163,993 bales higher than the 3,044,409 bales recorded during the same period last year, representing an overall increase of 5.39 percent. In Punjab, total arrivals stood at 1,214,951 bales, compared with 1,136,439 bales last year, an increase of 78,512 bales or 6.91 percent. Sindh recorded 1,993,451 bales, compared with 1,907,970 bales last year, an increase of 85,481 bales or 4.48 percent. Balochistan recorded 152,763 bales, compared with 112,990 bales last year, showing a significant increase of 39,773 bales or 35.31 percent.
Among the major cotton-producing belts, Sanghar district in Sindh recorded the highest arrivals at 984,312 bales, followed by Ghotki with 202,900 bales and Naushahro Feroze with 170,000 bales. In Punjab, Bahawalnagar recorded 276,700 bales, Bahawalpur 196,596 bales and Dera Ghazi Khan 193,210 bales, indicating strong production in these areas.
At present, 459 ginning factories are operational across the country, including 231 in Punjab and 228 in Sindh. In terms of sales, 2,726,868 bales have been sold to textile mills and 96,600 bales to exporters and traders, bringing total sales to 2,823,668 bales. The stock of unsold bales is 187,940 bales, while total unsold stock has reached 384,934 bales, compared with 539,931 bales during the same period last year.
The cotton crop has now entered a stage where the next few weeks will determine overall production and quality. Despite the good performance during the early part of the season, final output will depend on pest pressure, particularly pink bollworm, timely picking, weather conditions, rainfall and lint quality. This is the stage where even minor negligence can reduce the gains achieved through better early-season performance.
At present, pink bollworm is emerging as the most significant threat in both provinces. Reports of infestation have been received from various areas. Recent field monitoring by the Pest Warning Department of Punjab has also detected the presence of pink bollworm at certain locations. Under these circumstances, continuous surveillance is the most important requirement for farmers. Monitoring only visible damage to plants is not sufficient. Timely identification of larvae inside bolls and assessment of their impact are equally important.
According to the farmer advisory issued by the Central Cotton Research Institute, Multan, need-based spraying, monitoring at approximately seven-day intervals and timely picking are of decisive importance at the current stage. In Sindh, the crop is progressing relatively rapidly towards the final stage and a decline in cotton arrivals is expected during October and November, while picking is still continuing in Punjab. Because of this difference, a significant portion of the final national production this season will also depend on the performance of Punjab in the coming weeks.
The actual picture will emerge at the end of the season through total production, per-acre yield and lint quality.
Another important issue is contamination. There are reports that complaints related to contamination this season are higher than in previous years. Increasing the quantity of cotton is important, but if soil, plastic, cloth or other unwanted materials continue to enter the lint during picking, higher production will not translate into higher-quality cotton. Clean and timely picking therefore should not be viewed merely as a farmer-level issue. It is directly linked to quality across the entire cotton value chain, export competitiveness and the price received by farmers.
Global market trends, declining New York futures and the availability of imported cotton in the domestic market are also influencing prices. Mills are purchasing locally produced cotton, but imported alternatives are also being considered. Under these circumstances, the key question for farmers is not simply what the price of seed cotton is today. The more important question is how price, production and quality together will determine their overall income in the coming weeks.
The real test now lies with the remaining crop. If the crop in major production areas of Punjab is protected from severe pest attacks, unnecessary rainfall and further deterioration in quality, while picking continues in a timely and clean manner, the current season could move towards a better conclusion. However, if compromises are made in pest management, picking or quality during the final stage, a significant portion of the gains achieved through better early-season performance could also be lost.
In Sindh, cotton has reportedly been cultivated on approximately 1.3 million acres during the current season. Based on field observations and an assessment of the prevailing situation, if weather conditions remain favourable over the next few weeks and average yield reaches 2.25 bales per acre, Sindh’s potential production would be approximately 2.925 million bales.
For Punjab, the officially reported cultivated area is approximately 2.6 million acres. If average yield remains at 1 bale per acre, Punjab’s potential production would be approximately 2.6 million bales. If Balochistan’s potential production is conservatively estimated at approximately 200,000 bales, the combined potential production of Sindh, Punjab and Balochistan would be approximately 5.725 million bales, or around 5.7 million bales.
This is a current field-based estimate, not a final production forecast. Weather conditions during October and the final yield of the crop could cause a significant change in the estimate.
The chairman of the Progressive Group has said the group succeeded in getting an 18 percent sales tax on cottonseed cake and cottonseed withdrawn during Sohail Haral’s tenure as chairman, while reviewing the group’s performance before the house.
At the time, he noted, the group was representing the Pakistan Cotton Ginners Association (PCGA) as an executive member at the Federation of Pakistan Chambers of Commerce and Industry (FPCCI).
He said, however, that the tax was reimposed in the following budget.
“We will once again launch efforts for its withdrawal,” he said, reiterating the group’s commitment to securing relief for the cotton ginning sector.
Copyright Business Recorder, 2026
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