Climate change and its impact on cotton production

Climate change has emerged as the most formidable challenge to modern agriculture, and in Pakistan, cotton stands out as one of its most visible casualties. This crop serves as the backbone of the national economy, underpinning exports, the textile industry, and rural livelihoods. However, rising temperatures, erratic rainfall, severe droughts, and heatwaves are adversely affecting both its yield and quality.

During the 2025–26 season, cotton production was recorded at approximately 5.6 million bales—nearly 45 percent below the target of 10.2 million bales. In South Punjab, temperatures exceeding 45°C, coupled with unpredictable rainfall, led to increased boll shedding, heightened disease incidence, and intensified pest attacks, further exacerbating stress on the crop.

According to recent reports for the 2026 cotton season, temperatures during May and June are expected to remain 2 to 4°C above normal in key cotton-growing regions, including Multan, Bahawalpur, Rajanpur, Dera Ghazi Khan, Rahim Yar Khan, Sukkur, Khairpur, Nawabshah, Hyderabad, Badin, Tando Allah Yar, Tando Adam, Jacobabad, Shikarpur, Larkana, the peripheral agricultural areas of Quetta, Nasirabad, Jaffarabad, and Sohbatpur. In certain locations, temperatures may surge up to 52°C during intense heatwaves, significantly increasing the likelihood of fruit shedding and other physiological challenges in the cotton crop.

Cotton undergoes several growth stages—germination, vegetative growth, flowering, boll formation, and maturation—and climatic stress manifests differently at each stage. Extreme heat, particularly beyond 45°C, results in flower drop, shedding of young bolls, impaired pollen tube development, and reduced seed formation. Elevated night temperatures negatively affect plant energy balance and yield potential. Similarly, drought and water scarcity hinder boll development and compromise fiber length and strength. Conversely, excessive rainfall and flooding lead to boll rot, lodging of plants, and the spread of diseases, particularly Cotton Leaf Curl Virus (CLCV). Over the long term, declining soil fertility further reduces productivity. Experts identify drought and heatwaves as the most damaging factors, while floods, though less frequent, can cause severe episodic losses.

In this context, the adoption of sustainable agricultural practices has become imperative. Scientific studies indicate that balanced and precise nitrogen application—such as the split application of 150 to 200 kilograms of urea per acre, or fertilization guided by leaf color charts—can reduce nitrous oxide emissions by 30 to 65 percent without significant yield loss. Similarly, deficit irrigation strategies, particularly at 50 percent of available water levels, enhance water-use efficiency. A study conducted at the Central Cotton Research Institute (CCRI), Multan, demonstrated that the variety BTCIM-678 achieved water-use efficiency ranging from 0.55 to 0.64 kg per hectare per millimeter of water at 50 percent water availability, with only a 7 to 9 percent reduction in yield and a saving of approximately 37 centimeters of irrigation water. These findings underscore that improved management practices can substantially mitigate the adverse effects of climatic stress.

The Central Cotton Research Institute, Multan, is playing a proactive role in addressing the challenges posed by climate change. The institute is evaluating cotton varieties in its experimental fields that can tolerate temperatures up to 47°C, perform well under limited water availability, and withstand erratic climatic conditions. These include BTCIM-663, BTCIM-785, BTCIM-343, BTCIM-678, BT Cyto-535, BT Cyto-537, BTCIM-775, BT Cyto-511, and the newly approved BTCIM-990. These varieties exhibit resilience against high temperatures, water scarcity, and viral diseases. The institute has also introduced a low-cost, environment-friendly “Low Expenditure and Environment-Friendly (LEEF) Technology” aimed at increasing cotton productivity while reducing production costs.

To align cotton cultivation with the realities of climate change, several scientifically grounded measures are essential. First, the selection of heat-tolerant and drought-resistant varieties suited to regional agro-climatic conditions—such as BTCIM-990 and BT Cyto-511—is critical. Second, timely sowing within optimal planting windows can significantly reduce the adverse impacts of drought and erratic rainfall. Third, efficient nitrogen management ensures balanced nutrient utilization and improved nitrogen-use efficiency. Fourth, improved water management practices, including drip irrigation, enhance water-use efficiency while conserving resources. Fifth, maintaining soil health through reduced tillage, adopting integrated pest management strategies, and utilizing LEEF technology is vital. These measures collectively embody the principles of climate-smart agriculture, aiming to enhance productivity while minimizing environmental impacts.

In conclusion, climate change poses serious threats to cotton production; however, the sustained efforts of institutions such as the Central Cotton Research Institute, Multan, offer a ray of hope. By adopting suitable varieties, timely sowing, improved agronomic practices, deficit irrigation, and balanced nutrient management, farmers can not only enhance productivity but also strengthen the crop’s resilience to climatic stress. Without close coordination among the government, researchers, and farmers, achieving sustainability in the cotton sector will remain elusive. The time has come to shift from reactive responses to proactive adaptation and mitigation strategies to safeguard the national economy, exports, and food security.