India bonds pause oil-led rally ahead of Fed verdict

MUMBAI: A relief rally in Indian government bonds stalled on Wednesday as oil prices consolidated and the upcoming U.S. Federal Reserve policy verdict kept risk appetite in check.

The yield on the benchmark 6.94% 2036 note settled at 6.8626%, versus 6.8651% on Tuesday. The 10-year yield has eased 8 basis points in a week and hovered at a 12-week low.

Brent crude futures fell below $80 a barrel for the first time since early March, but edged higher in Asian trade at $79.28 per barrel.

U.S President Donald Trump said on Wednesday that the memorandum of understanding on Iran was not final, and that he could resume a bombing campaign if he did not like it, making traders cautious.

The interim deal would end the Iran war, lead to reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and the US removing its naval blockade of Iran.

India imports about 90% of its oil needs and is highly vulnerable to oil swings.

STCI Primary Dealership said in a note that prolonged supply disruptions could prompt rate hikes from Q3 FY2026-27, depending on macro conditions.

Traders now await the Fed decision under new chair Kevin Warsh. While no rate move is expected, hawkish guidance could widen U.S.-India differentials, dampening foreign investment in Indian bonds.

Indian policymakers have announced a slew of measures to boost foreign inflows into Indian debt and equities.

Consequently, overseas investors have poured more than $2 billion into domestic bonds over the past eight sessions, already surpassing the year-to-date inflows recorded before the measures were announced.

Rates

India’s overnight index swap rates continued to ease, although at a slower pace.

The one-year swap rate, the two-year rate and the five-year rate each pared 1 basis point to 5.88%, 6.04% and 6.2950% respectively.