Over the past decade, Brazil has made remarkable strides in the cotton sector, decisively overtaking Pakistan. In the early 2010s, Pakistan was ahead of Brazil in cotton production; today, however, Brazil has emerged as the world’s third-largest cotton producer after China and India and the leading global exporter.
According to the latest estimates, Brazil’s cotton output reached approximately 17 to 18 million bales (around 3.7 to 4.1 million tons) in 2024/25 and is expected to remain at a similar level in 2025/26. In contrast, Pakistan’s production has declined to about 5 to 5.6 million bales in 2024/25 and in 2025/26, marking a 40-year low compared to historical levels of 14 to 15 million bales.
The primary driver behind Brazil’s success is the effective use of modern agricultural management and technology. Cotton cultivation there is largely carried out under a double-cropping system, where soybeans are grown first followed immediately by cotton. This approach not only maximizes land use but also enhances per-acre income. In addition, no-till farming has been widely adopted, helping preserve soil fertility, reduce water loss, and minimize environmental impact. Precision agriculture, incorporating drones, satellite imaging, GPS, and sensors, enables farmers to apply water, fertilizers, and pesticides with accuracy and timeliness, significantly boosting productivity.
Genetically modified (GM/Bt) cotton accounts for 90 to 99 percent of Brazil’s crop, offering resistance to pests, particularly bollworm, and delivering higher yields with reduced chemical use. As a result, average lint yield has reached around 1,900 kilograms per hectare, placing Brazil among the world’s top performers, whereas Pakistan’s yield has declined to approximately 500 to 600 kilograms per hectare. Moreover, Brazil relies entirely on mechanical harvesting, which not only reduces labour costs but also improves cotton quality.
Another critical yet often overlooked factor behind Brazil’s success is the strength of its research institutions and the availability of substantial research funding. Agricultural research is treated as a national priority, with consistent and ample investment in research and development. Strong research institutions in collaboration with private companies work on seed improvement, development of new varieties, pest and disease resistance, and climate adaptability. Crucially, research outcomes are effectively transferred to farmers, creating a seamless linkage from laboratory to field. This sustained investment has enabled Brazil not only to adopt new technologies swiftly but also to develop localized solutions tailored to its needs.
In contrast, Pakistan’s cotton sector faces a multitude of challenges. Climate change has had a significant impact, with heatwaves, erratic rainfall, floods, and droughts becoming increasingly common. These conditions have led to issues such as pollen sterility and shedding of flowers and bolls. Pest attacks, particularly pink bollworm, whitefly, and CLCV, have further damaged the crop, while the absence of resistant varieties and the ineffective use of pesticides have exacerbated the problem.
Seed quality remains another major concern. The shortage of certified seed and the widespread availability of counterfeit seed have eroded farmers’ confidence, while the adoption of GM cotton has been slow. At the same time, sugarcane has encroached upon traditional cotton-growing areas in southern Punjab due to its relatively higher profitability. Water scarcity, declining soil fertility, outdated farming practices, and limited access to modern machinery have further constrained production.
Institutional capacity remains limited. Investment in research is modest, and existing research institutions face constraints in terms of financial resources, skilled manpower, and modern facilities. Consequently, the development of new varieties, effective pest management strategies, and climate-resilient research has progressed more slowly. Farmers are not always receiving timely guidance, modern technologies, or adequate financial support. The absence of a coherent long-term policy framework, coupled with price volatility and relatively low profitability, has reduced incentives for farmers to continue cotton cultivation.
As a result of these factors, Pakistan, once a cotton-exporting country, has become a major importer, increasingly relying on countries like Brazil. Experts argue that reversing this decline will require wider adoption of modern GM varieties, promotion of precision farming and integrated pest management, consolidation and strengthening of research institutions under a unified framework, and enhanced farmer training. At the policy level, cotton must be treated as a priority crop, supported by improved access to water, quality seed, and financial support.
Brazil’s experience clearly demonstrates that land and climate alone are not sufficient. Strong research institutions, robust funding, modern management, and effective use of technology are the true drivers of sustained agricultural success. Unless Pakistan addresses these areas with sustained attention, the pressure on its textile industry and rural economy is likely to intensify.
Brazil has not merely focused on increasing production but has strategically aligned the global supply chain in its favour. A well-organized and standardized system exists for cotton cleaning, grading, packaging, logistics, and value-added classifications such as superior fibre length, making Brazilian cotton the preferred choice for international buyers. In contrast, Pakistan’s cotton supply chain remains weak, fragmented, and largely unstructured. Substandard practices in ginning, grading, storage, and transportation lead to quality deterioration, limiting value addition in global markets.
Furthermore, Brazil has strengthened both the quality and market image of its cotton by adopting sustainability standards such as “Better Cotton” and other environmental certification schemes. This has enabled Brazilian cotton to gain preference in European and high-end markets as a sustainable and eco-friendly supply. Through demonstration farms, technology parks, and farmer groups, modern practices including GM varieties, double cropping, drones, and precision farming are showcased and tested in real field conditions, reducing farmers’ hesitation in adopting new technologies. Additionally, robust systems of agricultural financing, insurance, and market-based contracts protect farmers against price and production risks, making cotton cultivation a stable and profitable enterprise.
By contrast, Pakistan lacks a strong and organized system for sustainable or branded cotton. Weak standards in ginning, grading, storage, and logistics continue to undermine quality. Technology is often imported and not fully adapted to local conditions, while demonstration farms and continuous training programmes remain limited, discouraging adoption. The absence of comprehensive financing, insurance, and market risk management leaves farmers exposed, prompting a shift toward crops like sugarcane and resulting in a steady decline in both cotton production and quality.
Copyright Business Recorder, 2026
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