South African rand slips ahead of labour data, unemployment seen steady

JOHANNESBURG: The South African rand weakened in early trade on Tuesday ahead of the release of labour market data, with traders expecting the unemployment rate to have remained largely unchanged in the first quarter of 2026.

At 0500 GMT the rand traded at 16.48 against the dollar, about 0.2% down from its previous close.

Domestic investors are awaiting the unemployment data, due at 0900 GMT, to gauge the condition of the labour market of Africa’s most industrialised economy.

Lara Hodes, an economist at Investec, said unemployment will remain largely unchanged. However, she added, global and domestic economic uncertainty likely weighed on hiring.

The country’s official jobless rate currently stands at 31.4%, one of the highest globally.

Nedbank economists expect the Q1 unemployment rate to show a modest deterioration as the sluggish pace of economic activity continues to constrain the economy’s ability to absorb a growing labour force.

Nedbank said uncertainty stemming from U.S. tariffs and the Middle East conflict “likely weighed on business confidence. This environment appears to have encouraged firms to adopt a cautious, wait-and-see stance, delaying significant capital expenditure decisions, including hiring.”

The country’s statistics agency will publish manufacturing output at 1100 GMT, with analysts polled by Reuters expecting a modest 0.3% increase.

South Africa’s benchmark 2035 government bond was flat in early deals at 8.695%.