Autos: Maintain the balance

Automobile sales in 9MFY26 have sustained their rebound with total volumes rising 43 percent year on year to nearly 144,000 units. This began as a credit-fueled recovery supported by easing interest rates, improving consumer sentiment, and a steady pipeline of new variants. But growing production of cars can spell trouble for the import bill which remains an ongoing concern for policymakers.

The passenger car market’s bifurcation between sedans/hatchbacks and bigger engines has become more pronounced, especially if new offerings from Kia, Changan, BYD are including.

The diminishing share of sedans continues to be dominated by Toyota. However, combined volumes remain below historical levels, either because the upper middle-income buyers have lost some of their purchasing power or moved up to the SUV models available in the market.

In contrast, Suzuki Alto has strengthened its dominance, with volumes crossing 41,000 continuing to maintain its position as the single largest contributor to passenger car sales. However, the model’s share in total sold fell slightly to 38 percent (from 42%) as Swift and Corolla grew faster. The transition within Suzuki’s own lineup suggests a deeper shift in consumer preference. The complete phase-out of Bolan has been surprisingly offset by Suzuki Every which is inferior in design but lighter and more fuel efficient. As a vehicle used primarily for commercial purposes, the growth also indicates a recovery in commercial activities (as does the growth in buses and trucks which signals a return of logistics and infrastructure-linked demand; up 74%). Swift’s resurgence is likely welcome for the company as the model continues to draw interest of car buyers, even when it is priced so closed to a sedan like Yaris.

Volumes in the SUV and LCV category are broadly carried by Sazgar’s Haval lineup which is a standout performer, growing 57 percent year on year. Hyundai’s Tucson has also posted a strong 60 percent increase, while some fatigue is visible in higher-end offerings such as the Santa Fe and Sonata, both of which have seen declining volumes.

Two- and three-wheeler sales provide the clearest window into underlying demand realities. Volumes have risen 31 percent to over 1.43 million units in 9MFY26 confirming that—much like Alto—a dominant share of market is still looking for fuel efficient options in an environment still strained by inflation. This segment remains both a barometer of economic stress and a potential launchpad for large-scale electrification, should policy and financing both come to the table.

The more urgent concern is that higher vehicle demand requires higher fuel usage which has to be imported. Together with the rising import bill for completely knocked down (CKD) kits, the economy will soon contend with a deeper pressure felt on its external account as oil prices play fast and loose with global economics.

The likely policy response if the import-led demand is too much for Pakistan to handle would be import restrictions, tighter credit conditions, or administrative controls on fuel consumption.