India’s inflation quickens to 3.4% in March; Mideast war risks loom

NEW DELHI: India’s retail inflation quickened to 3.40% in March from 3.21% in February on higher food prices, government data showed on Monday, with energy disruptions due to the Middle East conflict posing risks to the key price gauge.

Annual inflation stayed below the central bank’s target of 4% and within its tolerance band of 2%-6%. The print was below the 3.48% projection by a Reuters poll.

Food inflation was at 3.87%, compared with 3.47% a month ago.

Doubts over a fragile two-week Middle East ceasefire lingered after President Donald Trump said the U.S. Navy would start blocking ships to and from Iran via the Strait of Hormuz, raising the stakes after failing to reach a deal to end the war.

Oil prices rose by more than 7% to $100 a barrel as the blockade could further restrict Iranian oil exports.

India’s February retail inflation accelerates to 3.21% y/y

India, which imports about 90% of its oil, is among economies most exposed to prolonged global energy supply disruptions and higher prices.

Last week, the Reserve Bank of India kept its key policy rate unchanged while warning of lower growth and higher inflation as the Middle East crisis reverses a “Goldilocks” phase for the South Asian economy.

The central bank released its first economic forecasts for the current financial year, with GDP growth expected to fall to 6.9% in 2026-27 from an expected 7.6% in the year ended March 31.

Average inflation is seen at 4.6% in the ongoing fiscal year.