Indian rupee to fall past 91 as Iran war puts oil on the boil, saps risk appetite

MUMBAI: The Indian rupee is expected to fall past the 91 per dollar mark on Monday after the U.S. and Israel bombed Iran over the weekend, risking protracted conflict in the Middle East, which sapped risk appetite and sparked a sharp rise in oil prices.

The 1-month non-deliverable forward indicated the rupee will open in the 91.28-91.32 range versus the US dollar, having settled at 90.9750 on Friday.

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Air strikes by Israel and the U.S. on Iran over the weekend resulted in the death of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Iran fired missile barrages across the region in retaliation, risking dragging its neighbours into the conflict.

U.S. President Donald Trump suggested to the Daily Mail the conflict could last for four more weeks, while posting on social media that attacks would continue until U.S. objectives were met.

The breakout in conflict sent investors running to safe havens such as gold while also pushing up oil prices to their highest in over a year.

Iran has said it has closed navigation through the Strait of Hormuz, a major oil export route though which about a fifth of the world’s total oil consumption passes.

“If meaningful oil price increases are sustained, we think the likes of KRW, INR, and to some extent PHP are more vulnerable given their linkages to oil imports,” Michael Wan, senior currency analyst at MUFG said in a note.

Asian currencies were down between 0.2% to 0.6% on Monday while MSCI’s gauge of Asia-Pacific equities fell 1.5%. The dollar index was down 0.2% at 97.9.

Traders reckon that the Reserve Bank of India will likely step in to avert a sharp slide in the rupee which could put it back in touching distance of its all-time low of 91.9875 hit earlier in the year.